{"id":80192,"date":"2024-04-10T09:37:14","date_gmt":"2024-04-10T07:37:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/?p=80192"},"modified":"2024-04-10T11:53:56","modified_gmt":"2024-04-10T09:53:56","slug":"inflacion-americana-marcara-rumbo-de-los-mercados","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/ca\/blog\/inflacion-americana-marcara-rumbo-de-los-mercados\/","title":{"rendered":"La inflaci\u00f3n americana marcar\u00e1 el rumbo de los mercados"},"content":{"rendered":"

Las bolsas europeas se ti\u00f1eron de rojo. En Europa destaca la ca\u00edda del DAX alem\u00e1n, que cedi\u00f3 1,32%, el Ibex retroced\u00eda un 0,88%, el Eurostoxx y el CAC franc\u00e9s se dejaban un 1,09% y 0,86% respectivamente. En cuanto a Wall Street, el comportamiento fue mixto: el Nasdaq sub\u00eda un 0,32%, el S&P 500 un 0,14%, mientras que el Dow Jones se dejaba 0,02%.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Informe de abril<\/strong><\/center>
\"Informe<\/a><\/center> <\/p>\n

Tipos de inter\u00e9s<\/h2>\n

 <\/p>\n

Los bonos se toman un respiro. Las rentabilidades disminuyen mientras el mercado mantiene en el 50% la probabilidad de un primer recorte en junio en Estados Unidos. Sin embargo, en Europa la probabilidad de una bajada de tipos en junio es del 80%. Se ha disipado la expectativa de tres recortes de tipos de inter\u00e9s de un cuarto de punto por parte de la Reserva Federal.<\/p>\n

Ahora el mercado descuenta solo dos reducciones este a\u00f1o, y as\u00ed lo reflejan los contratos de swap<\/i>, que sugieren alrededor de 60 puntos b\u00e1sicos de relajaci\u00f3n monetaria en EE.UU. para este a\u00f1o. Esto indica que dos recortes son el resultado m\u00e1s probable, con el primero esperado para septiembre. Se empieza a ver un horizonte de tipos altos durante m\u00e1s tiempo<\/a>.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/th>\nRentabilidad dos a\u00f1os<\/th>\nCambio diario dos a\u00f1os<\/th>\nRentabilidad diez a\u00f1os<\/th>\nCambio diario diez a\u00f1os<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Alemania<\/td>\n2,883%<\/td>\n-3,7 pb<\/td>\n2,369%<\/td>\n-6,4 pb<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Francia<\/td>\n2,87%<\/td>\n-2,9 pb<\/td>\n2,858%<\/td>\n-6,3 pb<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Espa\u00f1a<\/td>\n3,032%<\/td>\n-2,9 pb<\/td>\n3,179%<\/td>\n-6,8 pb<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Estados Unidos<\/td>\n4,744%<\/td>\n-4,7 pb<\/td>\n4,367%<\/td>\n-5,5 pb<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

El Tesoro P\u00fablico coloc\u00f3 ayer letras a seis y doce meses. La demanda de este tipo de activos de renta fija sigue siendo muy alta entre los inversores particulares, que en enero acumulaban una inversi\u00f3n de 24.664 millones de euros, casi 21.000 millones m\u00e1s que hace un a\u00f1o. El Tesoro recibi\u00f3 ofertas de 3.412 millones (seis meses) y de 6.915 (doce meses). En la letra subastada a m\u00e1s corto plazo se adjudicaron 1.310 millones, mientras que en la letra a doce se colocaron 3.921 millones. Ambas letras a un tipo m\u00e1s bajo. El Tesoro volver\u00e1 a los mercados de deuda el pr\u00f3ximo 16 de abril, con una emisi\u00f3n de letras a tres y nueve meses y otra el d\u00eda 18 de bonos y obligaciones del Estado, a un tipo inferior.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

En cuanto a las materias primas, el petr\u00f3leo contin\u00faa con la correcci\u00f3n<\/a> que comenzaba el d\u00eda anterior: el crudo Brent cotiza en 89 d\u00f3lares\/barril y el de tipo West Texas en torno a los 85 d\u00f3lares\/barril; en lo que va de a\u00f1o registran subidas cercanas al 16% y 19% respectivamente.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

La inflaci\u00f3n americana<\/h2>\n

 <\/p>\n

En macroeconom\u00eda ayer fue un d\u00eda de escasa informaci\u00f3n. Destacamos el indicador NFIB de optimismo de peque\u00f1as compa\u00f1\u00edas en Estados Unidos, que sali\u00f3 88,5 por debajo de lo esperado 89,9. Hoy conoceremos uno de los datos relevantes de esta semana: se publica la inflaci\u00f3n americana de marzo, la cual podr\u00eda repuntar del 3,2% al 3,4%, con la subyacente moder\u00e1ndose una d\u00e9cima al 3.7, aunque superando el objetivo del 2% de la Fed. Tambi\u00e9n se publica el acta de la reuni\u00f3n anterior de la Reserva Federal.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Reuni\u00f3n del BCE<\/h2>\n

La otra cita importante de la semana tendr\u00e1 lugar ma\u00f1ana, cuando el BCE celebra su reuni\u00f3n mensual de pol\u00edtica monetaria, en la que no se esperan cambios. El foco se centrar\u00e1 en la rueda de prensa de Christine Lagarde, en donde la presidenta puede preparar el camino para la primera bajada de junio o, por el contrario, no dar pistas sobre las decisiones futuras a tomar, a la espera de revisar las previsiones macro en junio.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Son importantes las esperanzadoras cifras macro que han salido en los \u00faltimos d\u00edas: el \u00edndice Sentix de confianza del consumidor de la eurozona aument\u00f3 por sexto mes consecutivo en abril, su mayor nivel en dos a\u00f1os, a niveles de -5,9 aunque sigue en terreno negativo.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

En Alemania la producci\u00f3n manufacturera subi\u00f3 un 2,1% en febrero, lo que hace prever que la econom\u00eda alemana empieza a dar signos de recuperaci\u00f3n. Estos buenos datos hacen pensar que la bajada de tipos a corto plazo no est\u00e1 garantizada.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Buen mi\u00e9rcoles.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

J\u00e9ssica Steuer Barbosa<\/strong>
\nAnalista<\/center><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Las bolsas europeas se ti\u00f1eron de rojo. En Europa destaca la ca\u00edda del DAX alem\u00e1n, que cedi\u00f3 1,32%, el Ibex retroced\u00eda un 0,88%, el Eurostoxx y el CAC franc\u00e9s se dejaban un 1,09% y 0,86% respectivamente. En cuanto a Wall Street, el comportamiento fue mixto: el Nasdaq sub\u00eda un 0,32%, el S&P 500 un 0,14%, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":80194,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9721],"tags":[9560,3459,4845,9559,5841,6557,6617],"class_list":["post-80192","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-morning-meeting","tag-dow-jones-bajada","tag-inflacion-americana","tag-petroleo","tag-reserva-fedeal","tag-reunion-bce","tag-tesoro-publico","tag-tipos-de-interes"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLa inflaci\u00f3n americana marcar\u00e1 el rumbo de los mercados<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Hoy conoceremos uno de los datos relevantes de esta semana: se publica el dato de inflaci\u00f3n americana. \u00bfSe moderar\u00e1?\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, 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