{"id":78918,"date":"2024-03-07T09:32:38","date_gmt":"2024-03-07T08:32:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/?p=78918"},"modified":"2024-03-07T12:19:10","modified_gmt":"2024-03-07T11:19:10","slug":"la-carta-que-sostiene-el-castillo-de-naipes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/ca\/blog\/la-carta-que-sostiene-el-castillo-de-naipes\/","title":{"rendered":"La carta que sostiene el castillo de naipes"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ayer Jerome Powell tuvo el primero de sus dos ex\u00e1menes sobre pol\u00edtica monetaria compareciendo ante el Congreso. Hoy tendr\u00e1 que rendir cuentas ante el Senado. Pero en su primer discurso reiter\u00f3 que si la econom\u00eda evoluciona como esperan, es probable que comience la flexibilizaci\u00f3n monetaria en alg\u00fan punto este a\u00f1o. Si bien la perspectiva econ\u00f3mica todav\u00eda es incierta e insisti\u00f3 en lo peligroso que ser\u00eda una reversi\u00f3n del progreso desinflacionista. Nada nuevo. Respecto al mercado laboral, asegur\u00f3 que las vacantes de empleo han disminuido y el crecimiento de los salarios nominales se ha ralentizado. Otro de los aspectos positivos es que de momento la demanda laboral supera con creces la oferta de trabajadores disponibles. Y esa es la carta que sostiene el castillo de naipes. Bueno… y los est\u00edmulos monetarios, pero en a\u00f1o electoral todo vale.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Informe de marzo<\/strong><\/center>
<\/center>
\"Informe<\/a><\/center> <\/p>\n

En Europa sorprendi\u00f3 el buen dato de exportaciones de Alemania (+6,3% vs. 1,5% estimado), muy por encima del anterior (-4,5%). Esto, junto con unas importaciones que crecieron en menor medida (+3,6% vs. +1,8% estimado), permiti\u00f3 que la balanza comercial del pa\u00eds se situara en 27.500 millones de euros en enero. Se esperaban 21.000, as\u00ed que es una buena noticia. Adem\u00e1s, las ventas minoristas de la zona euro rebotaron un t\u00edmido 0,1%. Puede parecer poco, pero supone alejarse del -0,6% del mes anterior.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Fuente: Factset<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Las bolsas rebotaron tras las dudas del martes. Estamos en un punto en el que las correcciones cada vez duran menos. Tanto los \u00edndices europeos (Euro Stoxx 50 +0,47%, DAX +0,06%, Ibex 35 +0,79%) como los norteamericanos (S&P 500 +0,51%, Nasdaq +0,58%) cerraron con subidas importantes. Las notas positivas vinieron de la mano de CrowdSrike (+10,8%) y JD.com (+16,1%%). La primera \u2015una de las compa\u00f1\u00edas l\u00edderes en ciberseguridad\u2015 super\u00f3 holgadamente las estimaciones de los analistas y sorprendi\u00f3 tras los malos resultados de su rival Palo Alto Networks. En el caso de JD.com, adem\u00e1s de batir en ingresos y beneficio por acci\u00f3n, anunci\u00f3 un programa de recompra de acciones por valor de 3.000 millones de d\u00f3lares. Algo as\u00ed como el 10% de toda su capitalizaci\u00f3n. La pandilla tecnol\u00f3gica china celebr\u00f3 las cifras con subidas fuertes: Alibaba +2,2%, Tencent +2,7%, Baidu +1,1%, Weibo +5,4%. Al \u00edndice Hang Seng ya “solo” le queda subir un 90% para recuperar los m\u00e1ximos hist\u00f3ricos de 2021.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Fuente: Bloomberg, elaboraci\u00f3n Tressis<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Otra de las noticias del d\u00eda fue la volatilidad que vivi\u00f3 el sector bancario estadounidense, con las miradas puestas en el New York Community Bancorp. La entidad regional lleva varias semanas sufriendo en bolsa ante las dudas sobre su solvencia y la preocupaci\u00f3n de los inversores. Pues bien, ayer lleg\u00f3 a caer un 43% durante la sesi\u00f3n para acabar subiendo m\u00e1s del 20% al cierre. Un grupo de fondos de cobertura quieren invertir 1.000 millones de d\u00f3lares para apuntalar el capital y asegurar su viabilidad. \u00bfSer\u00e1 suficiente? Desde luego es curioso que a estos precios ninguno de los grandes bancos se haya planteado la compra. Todav\u00eda le quedan cap\u00edtulos a este culebr\u00f3n.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Y para acabar, me gustar\u00eda proponerles un juego. Les voy a ense\u00f1ar la gr\u00e1fica de una cotizaci\u00f3n y quiero que traten de imaginar qu\u00e9 puede ser:<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Fuente: Bloomberg, elaboraci\u00f3n Tressis<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Les doy alguna pista: no es bitcoin ni NVIDIA y no tiene nada que ver con inteligencia artificial. Lo consumen a diario.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Feliz jueves.<\/p>\n

V\u00edctor \u00c1lvarez Sanz<\/strong>
\nResponsable de renta variable<\/center>P.S.: es el cacao.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ayer Jerome Powell tuvo el primero de sus dos ex\u00e1menes sobre pol\u00edtica monetaria compareciendo ante el Congreso. Hoy tendr\u00e1 que rendir cuentas ante el Senado. Pero en su primer discurso reiter\u00f3 que si la econom\u00eda evoluciona como esperan, es probable que comience la flexibilizaci\u00f3n monetaria en alg\u00fan punto este a\u00f1o. Si bien la perspectiva econ\u00f3mica […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":78922,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9721],"tags":[9492,2513,3416,3726,9491,6868,6920],"class_list":["post-78918","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-morning-meeting","tag-demanda-laboral","tag-estimulos-monetarios","tag-indices-europeos","tag-jerome-powell","tag-progreso-desinflacionista","tag-ventas-minoristas","tag-volatilidad"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLa carta que sostiene el castillo de naipes<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Ayer Jerome Powell tuvo el primero de sus dos ex\u00e1menes sobre pol\u00edtica monetaria compareciendo ante el Congreso.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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