{"id":78386,"date":"2024-03-05T08:47:24","date_gmt":"2024-03-05T07:47:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/?p=78386"},"modified":"2024-03-05T11:37:26","modified_gmt":"2024-03-05T10:37:26","slug":"supermartes-estados-unidos","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/ca\/blog\/supermartes-estados-unidos\/","title":{"rendered":"Hoy es el supermartes en EE.UU."},"content":{"rendered":"

Comportamiento mixto en los \u00edndices burs\u00e1tiles. En Europa, las subidas fueron lideradas por el Eurostoxx 50 con +0,37%, manteniendo los 4900 puntos, el \u00edndice franc\u00e9s CAC 40 +0,18% y el Ibex 35 aguantando los 10.000 puntos, con una peque\u00f1a subida de +0,05%. Sin embargo, en Estados Unidos todos los \u00edndices cerraron en negativo, aunque de una forma muy suave con ca\u00eddas limitadas. El Dow Jones cay\u00f3 un 0,25% hasta los 38.989 puntos, el S&P 500 -0,12% hasta los 5130 puntos y el Nasdaq, campe\u00f3n de este a\u00f1o con una revalorizaci\u00f3n positiva de +9,79%, cay\u00f3 -0,41% hasta los 16.207 puntos.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Informe de marzo<\/strong><\/center>
<\/center>
\"Informe<\/a><\/center> <\/p>\n

Los sectores est\u00e1n teniendo un comportamiento muy positivo este a\u00f1o y despu\u00e9s de la presentaci\u00f3n de resultados del \u00faltimo trimestre del 2023, en Estados Unidos solo el sector de utilities<\/i> con una ca\u00edda de -3,2% y el inmobiliario con -1,4% se mantienen en negativo. En Europa, la situaci\u00f3n es m\u00e1s complicada con cinco sectores que se mantienen este a\u00f1o en negativo: energ\u00eda con -2,6%, materiales con -1,9%, consumo b\u00e1sico -2,5%, utilities<\/i> -9,1% e inmobiliario en 6,5%.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

En relaci\u00f3n con las posibles bajadas de tipos, el mercado descuenta para Europa una bajada de 100 p.b. a finales de este a\u00f1o hasta situarse en el 3%. En Estados Unidos tambi\u00e9n una misma cuant\u00eda, hasta terminar este a\u00f1o, en su \u00faltima reuni\u00f3n de la Fed del 18 de diciembre en 4,50%. Ya nos encontramos muy lejos del 4,20% en el que se situaba el eur\u00edbor a doce meses en octubre del a\u00f1o pasado y aunque tampoco estamos en los niveles de 3,50%, como empezamos este a\u00f1o 2024, la rentabilidad actual de 3,74% nos indica que el \u00fanico lado es la bajada de tipos, aunque mucho m\u00e1s despacio de lo que pod\u00edamos esperar.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Los diferenciales de cr\u00e9dito siguen estrech\u00e1ndose, dando a entender, como as\u00ed pas\u00f3 en el 2023, que el mercado no contempla riesgos altos de impagos en los bonos high yield<\/i>. No debemos olvidar que actualmente uno de los pocos \u00edndices que se mantiene en positivo, acompa\u00f1ando a los bonos convertibles contingentes y los ligados a la inflaci\u00f3n, es el de bonos high yield<\/i> con una rentabilidad en EE.UU. de 0,82% y en Europa 0,47%.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

El pr\u00f3ximo jueves conoceremos la decisi\u00f3n de tipos del Banco Central Europeo, en el que destaca el comentario de la pol\u00edtica monetaria de su presidenta Christine Largarde. Seguimos pensando que la presidenta del BCE se mantendr\u00e1 en la misma opini\u00f3n que ha mantenido en estos \u00faltimos meses, confirmando que la prioridad del BCE es la estabilidad de precios y hasta que no veamos una reducci\u00f3n clara de los estos, los tipos de inter\u00e9s seguir\u00e1n cerca de los niveles actuales.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Tambi\u00e9n nuestra atenci\u00f3n estar\u00e1 situada en la 14\u00aa sesi\u00f3n anual de la Asamblea Nacional Popular de China (ANP), en cuya apertura el primer ministro Li Qiang ha revelado un ambicioso objetivo de crecimiento del 5% (tras el 5,2% de 2023), con una creaci\u00f3n de doce millones de empleos urbanos para 2024, manteniendo la tasa de paro en el 5,5%. Se fija una meta en torno al 3% de inflaci\u00f3n, con un d\u00e9ficit del 3% del PIB (por debajo del 3,8% revisado de 2023).<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Hoy es el supermartes en EE.UU., el d\u00eda con mayor n\u00famero de estados en elecciones primarias. Los analistas descuentan que hoy quedar\u00e1 claro que el siguiente candidato para la presidencia, por parte del partido republicano, ser\u00e1 Donald Trump y Nikki Haley presentar\u00e1 su renuncia. Tambi\u00e9n estaremos pendientes del discurso del presidente de la Reserva Federal, Jerome Powell, ante el comit\u00e9 de servicios financieros, ma\u00f1ana en la C\u00e1mara de Representantes y el jueves ante el Senado.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

En el lado macro, hoy se publican los precios industriales en la eurozona con una ca\u00edda esperada por los analistas del -8,1% desde -10,6%. En EE.UU. se publicar\u00e1n los pedidos a f\u00e1brica (-2,9% esperado vs. +0,2% anterior) y el ISM de servicios (53 esperado vs. 53,4 anterior)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Feliz martes.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Gonzalo Ram\u00edrez Celaya<\/strong>
\nDirector de Renta Fija<\/center><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Comportamiento mixto en los \u00edndices burs\u00e1tiles. En Europa, las subidas fueron lideradas por el Eurostoxx 50 con +0,37%, manteniendo los 4900 puntos, el \u00edndice franc\u00e9s CAC 40 +0,18% y el Ibex 35 aguantando los 10.000 puntos, con una peque\u00f1a subida de +0,05%. Sin embargo, en Estados Unidos todos los \u00edndices cerraron en negativo, aunque de […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":78389,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9721],"tags":[9478,2026,2126,2540,3182,3221,4392,6078,9479],"class_list":["post-78386","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-morning-meeting","tag-bajas-de-tipos","tag-diferenciales-de-credito","tag-dow-jones","tag-euribor","tag-high-yield","tag-ibex-35","tag-nasdaq","tag-sector-utilities","tag-supermartes"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nHoy es el supermartes en EE.UU.<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Los analistas descuentan que hoy quedar\u00e1 claro que el siguiente candidato para la presidencia.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" 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