{"id":76690,"date":"2024-01-15T09:40:25","date_gmt":"2024-01-15T08:40:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/?p=76690"},"modified":"2024-01-15T13:54:37","modified_gmt":"2024-01-15T12:54:37","slug":"lo-peor-ya-paso","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/ca\/blog\/lo-peor-ya-paso\/","title":{"rendered":"“Lo peor ya pas\u00f3”"},"content":{"rendered":"

Subidas generalizadas tanto el viernes como en el conjunto de la semana. En los \u00faltimos d\u00edas, destac\u00f3 el magn\u00edfico desempe\u00f1o del Nikkei, hasta ahora el gran ganador de este 2024 junto con, nuevamente, el Nasdaq. La renta variable mundial se mantuvo firme en la semana, a pesar del repunte de los precios al consumo en Estados Unidos y de los ataques de represalia de las fuerzas estadounidenses y brit\u00e1nicas contra las milicias hut\u00edes en Yemen. Los bombardeos se produjeron en respuesta a los repetidos ataques contra la navegaci\u00f3n comercial y las fuerzas navales estadounidenses en la regi\u00f3n, lo que provoc\u00f3 que el precio del barril de crudo Brent superara los 78 d\u00f3lares. El rendimiento de los principales bonos se relaj\u00f3, y el Treasury cerr\u00f3 la semana por debajo del 4% (3,93%), mientras que el bund se situ\u00f3 en 2,18%.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Los rendimientos y diferenciales de la renta fija han cotizado algo m\u00e1s d\u00e9biles en el inicio del nuevo a\u00f1o, tras un excelente final de 2023. Durante los meses de noviembre y diciembre, el Global Aggregate Bond Index registr\u00f3 una rentabilidad de casi el 10%, convirti\u00e9ndose en el mejor bimestre desde 1990. Este rendimiento se produjo gracias a la reducci\u00f3n de los tipos de inter\u00e9s y a los mensajes de los bancos centrales que se\u00f1alaron posibles recortes de tipos en el futuro durante 2024.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Desde nuestro punto de vista, sabiendo que el mercado descuenta una fuerte reducci\u00f3n, vemos mucho margen para la decepci\u00f3n por parte de la Fed, el BCE y el Banco de Inglaterra. En EE.UU., la econom\u00eda sigue creciendo a un ritmo saludable y, dado que la actividad del mercado inmobiliario se ha visto estimulada por la reciente bajada de los tipos hipotecarios, no creemos que el FOMC tenga prisa por recortar el precio del dinero. Adem\u00e1s, el nuevo a\u00f1o nos ha tra\u00eddo un repunte m\u00e1s elevado de lo esperado del IPC norteamericano de noviembre.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Estrategia 2024<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"Informe<\/a><\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n

Es cierto que ahora mismo todo apunta a recortes de tipos, pero \u00bfy si algo cambiara en el futuro? Aunque es cierto que el viernes conocimos que las operaciones de repos inversas por parte del Banco de la Reserva Federal de Nueva York cayeron el jueves a su nivel m\u00e1s bajo en un a\u00f1o. Estas operaciones alientan a los bancos a colocar dinero en la Reserva Federal, drenando as\u00ed los activos del sistema bancario y enfriando el crecimiento y la inflaci\u00f3n. Esto podr\u00eda sugerir que el programa de endurecimiento cuantitativo de la Fed, una herramienta contractiva, podr\u00eda desacelerarse pronto y finalmente llegar a concluir.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Aqu\u00ed en Europa, la presidenta del BCE, Christine Lagarde, dijo en una entrevista en la televisi\u00f3n francesa que pensaba que “lo peor ya hab\u00eda pasado” en la batalla para reducir la inflaci\u00f3n. Tambi\u00e9n afirm\u00f3 que los tipos de inter\u00e9s probablemente hab\u00edan alcanzado su punto m\u00e1ximo. “Creo que los tipos, salvo m\u00e1s shocks o datos inesperados, no seguir\u00e1n subiendo”, dijo. “Y si ganamos nuestra lucha contra la inflaci\u00f3n, y si estamos seguros de que la inflaci\u00f3n estar\u00e1 en el 2%, en ese momento los tipos comenzar\u00e1n a bajar”. Sin embargo, se neg\u00f3 a decir cu\u00e1ndo ocurrir\u00edan estos recortes. Por su parte, la semana trajo el inicio no oficial de la temporada de resultados, con los cuatro bancos m\u00e1s grandes de Estados Unidos \u2014JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America y Wells Fargo\u2014 informando de sus cuentas del cuarto trimestre el viernes.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Hoy no tendremos referencias del mercado norteamericano debido al festivo por el D\u00eda de Martin Luther King, Jr., pero s\u00ed que conoceremos importantes datos macroecon\u00f3micos europeos como la balanza comercial o la producci\u00f3n industrial de noviembre de la eurozona. Adem\u00e1s, tenemos que digerir la victoria electoral de Lai Ching-te en las elecciones presidenciales de Taiw\u00e1n. La victoria del Partido Democr\u00e1tico Progresista, contrario a Pek\u00edn, puede ser el detonante de una nueva crisis entre Estados Unidos y China. Un a\u00f1o especialmente importante para la principal potencia econ\u00f3mica del mundo debido a las elecciones de noviembre, cuyas primarias tendr\u00e1n su primer capitulo hoy en Iowa. <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Esta semana tendremos otro punto clave de la pol\u00edtica americana. El l\u00edder de la mayor\u00eda del Senado de Estados Unidos, Chuck Schumer, y el presidente de la C\u00e1mara de Representantes, Mike Johnson, llegaron a un acuerdo sobre los gastos el fin de semana pasado, antes de que expire el 19 de enero un proyecto de ley de financiaci\u00f3n temporal de la Administraci\u00f3n. Despu\u00e9s de varias renuncias y jubilaciones a finales de 2023, la mayor\u00eda republicana de Johnson se ha reducido a un solo voto, lo que le deja poco margen de maniobra y le da a cada diputado una enorme influencia para impulsar sus prioridades legislativas. A solo unos d\u00edas de que se agoten los fondos, parece probable que se apruebe otra pr\u00f3rroga hasta el 1 de marzo porque a\u00fan se est\u00e1n discutiendo los detalles de algunas partidas presupuestarias. <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Buena semana.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Jorge Gonz\u00e1lez G\u00f3mez<\/strong>
\nDirector de An\u00e1lisis<\/center><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Subidas generalizadas tanto el viernes como en el conjunto de la semana. En los \u00faltimos d\u00edas, destac\u00f3 el magn\u00edfico desempe\u00f1o del Nikkei, hasta ahora el gran ganador de este 2024 junto con, nuevamente, el Nasdaq. La renta variable mundial se mantuvo firme en la semana, a pesar del repunte de los precios al consumo en 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