{"id":73537,"date":"2023-07-28T10:36:04","date_gmt":"2023-07-28T08:36:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/?p=73537"},"modified":"2023-07-28T10:36:04","modified_gmt":"2023-07-28T08:36:04","slug":"jerome-powell-capaz-de-batir-la-inflacion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/ca\/blog\/jerome-powell-capaz-de-batir-la-inflacion\/","title":{"rendered":"Jerome Powell ser\u00e1 capaz de batir la inflaci\u00f3n"},"content":{"rendered":"

Como si del fichaje de Kylian Mbapp\u00e9 por el Real Madrid se tratase, la recesi\u00f3n \u00bfm\u00e1s? anunciada de la historia cada vez parece menos probable. Es curioso como dos de las noticias m\u00e1s esperados durante las \u00faltimas semanas no terminan de concretarse. En lo que nos concierne como inversores, deber\u00edamos ser constructivos con una econom\u00eda como la americana cuyo PIB del segundo trimestre ha crecido a tasas del 2,4% anualizado cuando se estimaba un auge del 1,8% y, especialmente, cuando los datos del primero se revisaron al alza desde el 1,4% hasta el 2%. Adem\u00e1s, estas cifras vienen explicadas porque el consumo interno aument\u00f3 un 1,6%, el mercado laboral continu\u00f3 mostrando una robustez envidiable (las peticiones de subsidio por desempleo semanales se encuentran en niveles cercanos al pleno empleo) y, para m\u00e1s inri, el \u00edndice de precios que sigue la Fed para tomar decisiones, el PCE, fue del 3,8% cuando se esperaba un 4%. Parece que no habr\u00eda ni aterrizaje suave ni forzoso, Jerome Powell ser\u00e1 capaz de batir la inflaci\u00f3n ralentizando el crecimiento econ\u00f3mico. <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u00bfY en Europa? La noticia fue que Christine Lagarde sigui\u00f3 con el plan establecido y subi\u00f3 los tipos de referencia en 25 puntos b\u00e1sicos. Hubo unanimidad en el seno del BCE para tomar la decisi\u00f3n, aunque quiz\u00e1 hubo m\u00e1s discrepancias a la hora de se\u00f1alar las debilidades de la econom\u00eda europea: una industria manufacturera d\u00e9bil fruto de las condiciones financieras restrictivas y una menor demanda extranjera. Los servicios contin\u00faan en expansi\u00f3n y, adem\u00e1s, la presi\u00f3n salarial (3,1% anualizado) amenaza con prolongar en el tiempo las elevadas cifras de inflaci\u00f3n. Veremos si el efecto base nos juega una mala pasada o si las materias primas se encarecen y dejan de ser un viento de cola en la lucha con los altos precios. <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Imagen: Probabilidades de subidas de tipos de inter\u00e9s tras el verano.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Fuente: Bloomberg.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

En los mercados de renta fija se hicieron notar los efectos de las noticias mencionadas anteriormente, aunque el movimiento fue dispar en Europa y en Estados Unidos. En el Viejo Continente, la curva alemana gan\u00f3 algo de pendiente porque las compras se impusieron y estas fueron m\u00e1s acentuadas en los tramos cortos. La rentabilidad exigida al bono a dos a\u00f1os disminuy\u00f3 en 4,5 puntos b\u00e1sicos, mientras que en el diez lo hizo en uno. Las primas de riesgo espa\u00f1ola e italiana disminuyeron y se situaron en 100 y 159 p.b., respectivamente. Al otro lado del Atl\u00e1ntico, el movimiento fue completamente diferente y las emisiones del Tesoro estadounidense registraron ca\u00eddas en precio con su consecuente aumento del rendimiento exigido. <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Al igual que la deuda tuvo un comportamiento dispar, los parqu\u00e9s de renta variable experimentaron un comportamiento opuesto. La cara de la moneda fue para Europa que fue de menos a m\u00e1s y logr\u00f3 que la mayor\u00eda de sus \u00edndices cerrasen con revalorizaciones como la del IBEX 35 del 0,98%, el Eurostoxx lo hizo un 2,33%, el CAC franc\u00e9s un 2,05% y el DAX alem\u00e1n un 1,70%. La cruz fue para las referencias estadounidenses que cogieron el camino contrapuesto. Tras un inicio positivo, se dieron paso a las ventas y los n\u00fameros rojos se adue\u00f1aron del S&P 500 (-0,64%), del Nasdaq (-0,55%) y del Dow Jones (-0,67%). Por el lado de las divisas, el euro se depreci\u00f3 respecto al d\u00f3lar un 0,97%, lo que llevo a la moneda comunitaria a perder el 1,1. <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Finalmente, durante la madrugada saltaba la noticia de que el Banco de Jap\u00f3n ser\u00e1 m\u00e1s flexible en su control de la curva dada la resurrecci\u00f3n en el pa\u00eds y el coste de dicha herramienta. Por tanto, a partir de hoy, habr\u00e1 que seguir de cerca esta medida y la continuaci\u00f3n de la temporada de resultados que, por el momento, est\u00e1 dejando un buen sabor de boca, tal y como escribi\u00f3 V\u00edctor \u00c1lvarez en estas mismas l\u00edneas ayer. <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Feliz viernes.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Samuel P\u00e9rez Ogayar<\/strong>
\nAnalista<\/center><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n


\n
\n\"Informe
\n<\/a>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Como si del fichaje de Kylian Mbapp\u00e9 por el Real Madrid se tratase, la recesi\u00f3n \u00bfm\u00e1s? anunciada de la historia cada vez parece menos probable. Es curioso como dos de las noticias m\u00e1s esperados durante las \u00faltimas semanas no terminan de concretarse. En lo que nos concierne como inversores, deber\u00edamos ser constructivos con una econom\u00eda […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":73541,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9721],"tags":[490,559,9096,1130,1788,2126,9167,2720,3726,9179,4392,4749,4856,9180,5406,6272],"class_list":["post-73537","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-morning-meeting","tag-banco-de-japon","tag-bce","tag-cac-frances","tag-christine-lagarde","tag-dax-aleman","tag-dow-jones","tag-el-ibex-35-hoy","tag-fed","tag-jerome-powell","tag-kylian-mbappe","tag-nasdaq","tag-pce","tag-pib","tag-real-madrid","tag-recesion","tag-sp-500"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nJerome Powell ser\u00e1 capaz de batir la inflaci\u00f3n<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Parece que no habr\u00e1 ni aterrizaje suave ni forzoso. 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