{"id":67779,"date":"2023-04-18T09:29:58","date_gmt":"2023-04-18T07:29:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/?p=67779"},"modified":"2023-04-18T14:38:57","modified_gmt":"2023-04-18T12:38:57","slug":"final-subida-tipos","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/ca\/blog\/final-subida-tipos\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00bfFinal de subida de tipos?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Cerramos un lunes con saldos mixtos en las bolsas europeas y americanas. En Europa, el Eurostoxx 50 cerraba en -0,53%, con el Ibex +0,17%, hasta cerca de los 9.400 puntos encadenando su cuarta subida. El CAC franc\u00e9s correg\u00eda un 0,28% y el DAX alem\u00e1n se dejaba un 0,11% con el MIB italiano retrocediendo 0,62%.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

En EE.UU. los movimientos fueron escasos pero al menos positivos. El comportamiento de las bolsas est\u00e1 siendo muy bueno este a\u00f1o, como as\u00ed reflejan los sectores exceptuando el financiero, que en EE.UU. cae \u201csolamente\u201d un 4% despu\u00e9s de la crisis bancaria que hemos padecido el pasada mes de marzo, y el inmobiliario, que empieza a ser castigado por la situaci\u00f3n de recesi\u00f3n a ambos lados del Atl\u00e1ntico. Sin embargo, sectores como telecomunicaciones, tecnolog\u00eda o consumo discrecional suben dos d\u00edgitos con Europa ganadora frente a EE.UU.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Seguimos teniendo en la retina el dato de la inflaci\u00f3n americana de la semana pasada, que nos ofreci\u00f3 una ca\u00edda de la general hasta el +5% vs. 6% anterior, pero con la subyacente en +5,6% vs. 5,5% anterior. Es comprensible la ca\u00edda de la primera, con el gas natural en EE.UU. cayendo 52,76% y el gas natural en Europa -46,08%, niveles no vistos desde 2021 y con subidas muy peque\u00f1as del petr\u00f3leo: West Texas del 2,82% y Brent en 0,47%.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Sin embargo, la subyacente americana sigue preocupando, y por ello el mercado ya descarta una subida de tipos de al menos 0,25% en la pr\u00f3xima reuni\u00f3n de la Fed del tres de mayo. Con esta subida nos encontraremos con que los tipos actuales americanos (Fed Funds) se situar\u00e1n al mismo nivel que la inflaci\u00f3n si no superior, lo que nos puede hacer pensar que la subida de tipos en EE.UU. se acerca a su fin. Otra pista importante es la rebaja de los salarios, que han pasado de +5,9% en marzo 2022 a 4,2% en marzo 2023. Ahora deberemos estar muy pendientes del sector industrial y del inmobiliario para ver en los pr\u00f3ximos meses una reducci\u00f3n de la subyacente.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Algo parecido pasa en Europa, donde de nuevo se empiezan a descontar subidas de tipos de 0,25% para las pr\u00f3ximas reuniones del BCE de mayo y de julio por una subyacente que sigue sin relajarse y con una general que se mantiene por encima del 6%. Las inflaciones de pa\u00edses como Lituania, Eslovenia, Polonia\u2026, que se sit\u00faan muy por encima del 10%, y en algunos casos por encima del 15%, mantienen esta visi\u00f3n de que la subida de tipos en Europa todav\u00eda no ha terminado. El discurso de Christine Lagarde de ayer no tuvo mucha relevancia para la pr\u00f3xima decisi\u00f3n del BCE en mayo, pero alert\u00f3 sobre un posible periodo de larga inestabilidad y menor crecimiento.<\/p>\n

  <\/p>\n

En relaci\u00f3n a los datos macro, hoy hemos tenido importantes datos en China a las 04:00 a.m. La econom\u00eda creci\u00f3 a un ritmo superior al previsto en el primer trimestre (+4,5% interanual) y la producci\u00f3n industrial se aceler\u00f3 hasta el 3,9% en marzo desde el 2,4% en el primer bimestre. La tasa de paro en zonas urbanas se situ\u00f3 en el 5,3% a finales de febrero (dentro del l\u00edmite marcado para este a\u00f1o del 5,5%). Los precios de la vivienda nueva subieron un 0,5% en marzo (vs. 0,3% anterior), su mayor ritmo en 21 meses, lo que sugiere que el mercado est\u00e1 saliendo del estancamiento gracias a los fuertes est\u00edmulos. Se espera en definitiva que el PIB del 2023 se acelere hasta el 5,4% desde el 3% del a\u00f1o pasado.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

En Europa hoy se publica el sentimiento econ\u00f3mico ZEW alem\u00e1n y en relaci\u00f3n a la presentaci\u00f3n de resultados, tendremos los datos trimestrales de BOFA, Goldman Sachs, BNY Mellon, Netflix y United Airlines, entre otros.<\/p>\n

  <\/p>\n

Feliz martes.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Gonzalo Ram\u00edrez Celaya<\/strong>
\nDirector de Renta Fija<\/center><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n


\n
\n\"Informe
\n<\/a>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Cerramos un lunes con saldos mixtos en las bolsas europeas y americanas. En Europa, el Eurostoxx 50 cerraba en -0,53%, con el Ibex +0,17%, hasta cerca de los 9.400 puntos encadenando su cuarta subida. El CAC franc\u00e9s correg\u00eda un 0,28% y el DAX alem\u00e1n se dejaba un 0,11% con el MIB italiano retrocediendo 0,62%.   […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":67783,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9721],"tags":[559,9001,9000,2720,3079,3459,4416,6416,9002],"class_list":["post-67779","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-morning-meeting","tag-bce","tag-bny-mellon","tag-bofa","tag-fed","tag-goldman-sachs","tag-inflacion-americana","tag-netflix","tag-subyacente-americana","tag-united-airlines"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u00bfFinal de subida de tipos?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"La subyacente americana sigue preocupando, y por ello el mercado descarta una subida de tipos. 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