{"id":67446,"date":"2023-03-17T09:51:48","date_gmt":"2023-03-17T08:51:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/?p=67446"},"modified":"2023-03-17T11:00:53","modified_gmt":"2023-03-17T10:00:53","slug":"despues-de-la-tormenta","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/ca\/blog\/despues-de-la-tormenta\/","title":{"rendered":"Despu\u00e9s de la tormenta…"},"content":{"rendered":"

Despu\u00e9s de la tormenta, llega la calma (o no). Tras un mi\u00e9rcoles te\u00f1ido de n\u00fameros rojos, con Credit Suisse en el ojo del hurac\u00e1n, ayer la atenci\u00f3n se centr\u00f3 en el BCE. Christine Lagarde lanz\u00f3 un duro mensaje en cuanto a tipos de inter\u00e9s, argumentando que la inflaci\u00f3n seguir\u00e1 demasiado alta durante un tiempo. Por tanto, increment\u00f3 las tres referencias (dep\u00f3sito, refinanciaci\u00f3n y facilidad marginal de cr\u00e9dito) en 50 puntos b\u00e1sicos, las cuales se ubicaron en 3,00%, 3,50% y 3,75% respectivamente.<\/p>\n

Este mensaje reafirma la continua lucha a la que se enfrenta dicha entidad para controlar el aumento de precios. Aunque muchos estuvieron a la expectativa de que esta subida de tipos se detuviera por la quiebra del banco estadounidense SVB y el contagio que pudiera tener Credit Suisse. Sin embargo, no ha sido as\u00ed. Insisti\u00f3 en el objetivo de la inflaci\u00f3n promedio al 2% en el largo plazo.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

La resaca de las ca\u00eddas del mi\u00e9rcoles y esta pronunciaci\u00f3n de Lagarde generaron n\u00fameros verdes en los parqu\u00e9s europeos. Lideraron las subidas el Eurostoxx 50 con +2,03%, seguido del CAC 40 franc\u00e9s con +2,03% y el IBEX 35 espa\u00f1ol con +1,50%. En tema sectorial, las subidas estuvieron lideradas por el sector tecnol\u00f3gico con +2,92%, y consumo discrecional +2,33%. Sin embargo, los sectores que rezagaron el mercado fueron el inmobiliario y el energ\u00e9tico, -1.69% y -0.98% respectivamente. Estados Unidos no fue la excepci\u00f3n. El S&P 500 cerr\u00f3 +1,76%, Dow Jones +1,17% y el Nasdaq sorprendi\u00f3 con un +2,48%.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Por el lado de la renta fija, las ca\u00eddas fueron las que pintaron las pantallas de los operadores. La noticia de la presidenta del BCE ayud\u00f3 a que la rentabilidad exigida a los bonos aumentara. En Alemania, el bund<\/i> (bono a diez a\u00f1os) se ubic\u00f3 en 2,28%, mientras que el schatz<\/i> (bono a dos a\u00f1os) cerr\u00f3 con una rentabilidad\u00a0del 2,57%. El \u00edndice MOVE, el cual mide la volatilidad de los tipos de inter\u00e9s americanos (muy parecido al VIX del S&P 500) alcanz\u00f3 a tocar niveles no vistos desde 2009, incluso mayores que los vividos en el 2020 con la pandemia. La rentabilidad del bono a dos a\u00f1os de Estados Unidos volvi\u00f3 a ubicarse por encima del 4% tras haber alcanzado el 3,88% el pasado mi\u00e9rcoles.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Fuente: Bloomberg<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

En la agenda macro, en Estados Unidos se dieron a conocer las peticiones iniciales de desempleo, que salieron menores que lo estimado por los analistas, 192.000 vs. 205.000. Adem\u00e1s, las construcciones iniciales salieron mayores que lo esperado y planos con respecto al periodo pasado (1.450.000 vs. 1.310.000 estimado y 1.321.000 anterior). Para hoy, saldr\u00e1n a la luz los datos de inflaci\u00f3n de la zona euro, la confianza del consumidor de la Universidad de Michigan y las posiciones netas especulativas en el S&P 500 de la CFTC (por sus siglas en ingl\u00e9s, Comisi\u00f3n de Negociaci\u00f3n de Futuros sobre Materias Primas).<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Para terminar, hoy se celebra el d\u00eda de san Patricio. La historia nos dice que un sacerdote cristiano comenz\u00f3 a predicar en Irlanda y convirti\u00f3 a gran parte de la poblaci\u00f3n al cristianismo. No obstante, en la actualidad se conoce como una excusa m\u00e1s para beber cerveza verde en los t\u00edpicos pubs<\/i> irlandeses. \u00bfToda esta historia para qu\u00e9? Resulta que la inflaci\u00f3n ha llegado tambi\u00e9n a los precios de las bebidas alcoh\u00f3licas y de media, seg\u00fan los datos publicados por Eurostat, en la zona euro una cerveza es un 9,6% m\u00e1s cara que el a\u00f1o pasado, mientras que en Espa\u00f1a pagamos un 13,8% m\u00e1s que hace doce meses. As\u00ed que a celebrar con responsabilidad y prudencia, tanto en excesos como de bolsillo.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Feliz viernes.<\/p>\n

\u00c1lvaro Lleras Montoya<\/strong>
\nAnalista<\/center>

\n
\n\"Informe
\n<\/a><\/center><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Despu\u00e9s de la tormenta, llega la calma (o no). Tras un mi\u00e9rcoles te\u00f1ido de n\u00fameros rojos, con Credit Suisse en el ojo del hurac\u00e1n, ayer la atenci\u00f3n se centr\u00f3 en el BCE. Christine Lagarde lanz\u00f3 un duro mensaje en cuanto a tipos de inter\u00e9s, argumentando que la inflaci\u00f3n seguir\u00e1 demasiado alta durante un tiempo. 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