{"id":67432,"date":"2023-03-16T09:44:02","date_gmt":"2023-03-16T08:44:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/?p=67432"},"modified":"2023-03-16T11:10:03","modified_gmt":"2023-03-16T10:10:03","slug":"replicas-en-banca-y-bolsa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/ca\/blog\/replicas-en-banca-y-bolsa\/","title":{"rendered":"R\u00e9plicas en banca y bolsa"},"content":{"rendered":"

El Banco Nacional Saud\u00ed (SNB) no va a proporcionar m\u00e1s apoyo financiero a Credit Suisse. Una noticia que en otro momento apenas habr\u00eda provocado un peque\u00f1o susto, pero ahora vuelve a alimentar las fuertes dudas que azotan al sector bancario. Tampoco nos deber\u00eda pillar por sorpresa, sobre todo despu\u00e9s de los esc\u00e1ndalos que protagoniz\u00f3 la entidad suiza en 2021 (las ca\u00eddas de Archegos y Greensill Capital, sobornos…). El caso es que la confianza est\u00e1 ahora mismo por los suelos y hace tiempo que los clientes empezaron a huir de Credit Suisse. Ammar Al Khudary, presidente del SNB, ha dado la puntilla al afirmar que descartan dar mayor asistencia al banco, principalmente por problemas regulatorios. Si superasen el 10% de participaci\u00f3n, entrar\u00edan en un nuevo r\u00e9gimen de regulaciones. Si bien la entrevista trasluce que hay m\u00e1s razones de peso: “No estamos dispuestos a entrar en un nuevo r\u00e9gimen regulatorio. No obstante, puedo citar otras cinco o seis razones para no pensar en ir m\u00e1s all\u00e1”. Sin comentarios. Quien s\u00ed ha respondido a la llamada de auxilio, y en un tiempo r\u00e9cord, ha sido el Banco Nacional Suizo junto con la autoridad supervisora de los mercados financieros suizos (FINMA). Se comprometen a proporcionar liquidez a Credit Suisse si es necesario, aunque confirman que cumple con los requisitos de capital pertinentes.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

La reacci\u00f3n del mercado fue penalizar a Credit Suisse (-24,24%) y, c\u00f3mo no, a todo el sector bancario. El EuroStoxx Bancos cay\u00f3 un 8,40%, con Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale (-12,18%), Sabadell (-10,49%) y BNP Paribas (-10,11%). Tampoco se libraron las bolsas europeas (EuroStoxx 50 -3,46%, DAX -3,27%, Ibex 35 -4,37%), con descensos considerables. S\u00ed salvaron un poco los muebles los \u00edndices norteamericanos (S&P 500 -0,70%, Nasdaq +0,05%), capitaneados por un sector tecnol\u00f3gico que parece dispuesto a volver a liderar los mercados. Tambi\u00e9n tuvimos movimientos abruptos en la renta fija, la rentabilidad del bono a 10 a\u00f1os alem\u00e1n lleg\u00f3 hasta el 2,11% y el estadounidense perdi\u00f3 holgadamente la barrera del 3,5%. \u00bfDe verdad los bancos centrales van a dar un giro de 180 grados en el guion monetario? <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Moody’s o Goldman Sachs se han apresurado a apostar por que no habr\u00e1 subida en los tipos de inter\u00e9s este mes en EE.UU. Piensan que la carga de incertidumbre en torno a las recientes quiebras bancarias har\u00e1 mella en el seno de la Reserva Federal. Yo si fuera Moody’s tampoco har\u00eda muchos comentarios, no vaya a ser que nos pongamos a revisar qu\u00e9 calificaci\u00f3n les daba a los bancos regionales americanos. Lo que s\u00ed parece claro es que ha habido un vuelco evidente en las expectativas:<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n

Cualquiera dir\u00eda que es el mismo pa\u00eds… Hemos pasado, en una semana, de una reducci\u00f3n t\u00edmida, a que el tipo impl\u00edcito a final de a\u00f1o se sit\u00fae en el 3,64%. A la luz de los datos de IPC que hemos visto estos d\u00edas \u2014y que previsiblemente vamos a convivir con niveles de inflaci\u00f3n altos durante mucho tiempo\u2014 volver a una pol\u00edtica monetaria expansiva ser\u00eda lo m\u00e1s parecido a pegarse un tiro en el pie. Solo hace falta mirar c\u00f3mo acab\u00f3 la situaci\u00f3n a finales de los a\u00f1os setenta.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

A nivel macroecon\u00f3mico, el IPC general de Francia sorprendi\u00f3 al alza (6,3% vs. 6,2% estimado), la producci\u00f3n industrial de la zona euro se qued\u00f3 por encima de lo esperado (0,4% vs. 0,7%) y el \u00edndice de precios de producci\u00f3n en EE.UU. mostraba cierta desaceleraci\u00f3n (4,6% vs. 5,4%). No parecen datos como para ver grandes cambios en los bancos centrales, pero hoy saldremos de dudas a las 14:30. Cita marcada en rojo, aunque esperemos que la sesi\u00f3n acabe con otro color.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Feliz jueves.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

V\u00edctor \u00c1lvarez Sanz<\/strong>
\nResponsable de renta variable<\/center><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n


\n
\n\"Informe
\n<\/a>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

El Banco Nacional Saud\u00ed (SNB) no va a proporcionar m\u00e1s apoyo financiero a Credit Suisse. Una noticia que en otro momento apenas habr\u00eda provocado un peque\u00f1o susto, pero ahora vuelve a alimentar las fuertes dudas que azotan al sector bancario. Tampoco nos deber\u00eda pillar por sorpresa, sobre todo despu\u00e9s de los esc\u00e1ndalos que protagoniz\u00f3 la […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":67436,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9721],"tags":[8964,8962,8961,8966,1605,8967,3079,8963,4324,5982,6225,8965],"class_list":["post-67432","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-morning-meeting","tag-ammar-al-khudary","tag-archegos","tag-banco-nacional-saudi","tag-bnp-paribas","tag-credit-suisse","tag-finma","tag-goldman-sachs","tag-greensill-capital","tag-moodys","tag-sabadell","tag-snb","tag-societe-generale"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nR\u00e9plicas en banca y bolsa<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"El Banco Nacional Saud\u00ed no va a proporcionar m\u00e1s apoyo financiero a Credit Suisse. 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