{"id":64297,"date":"2022-10-11T10:25:34","date_gmt":"2022-10-11T08:25:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/?p=64297"},"modified":"2022-10-11T10:25:34","modified_gmt":"2022-10-11T08:25:34","slug":"dias-de-transicion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/ca\/blog\/dias-de-transicion\/","title":{"rendered":"D\u00edas de transici\u00f3n"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ayer conocimos a los galardonados con el Premio Nobel de Econom\u00eda 2022, tres economistas liderados por el exgobernador de la Reserva Federal: Ben Bernanke; premiados por su investigaci\u00f3n sobre las crisis financieras y el papel de los bancos en estas crisis. Enhorabuena a los tres. No hay que descartar que repitan el a\u00f1o que viene si esto se sigue animando.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Digo esto porque ayer tambi\u00e9n el mercado brit\u00e1nico estuvo animado con el anuncio del BOE de ampliar las actuales medidas en su programa de compras para garantizar y restablecer el correcto funcionamiento del mercado dom\u00e9stico brit\u00e1nico. El objetivo de estas ayudas es evitar problemas de liquidez generados por la fuerte ca\u00edda del precio de los bonos, garantes de las inversiones m\u00e1s arriesgadas que tomaron los fondos de pensiones en los a\u00f1os en que la rentabilidad de la deuda estaba cerca de 0%. El bono brit\u00e1nico a 2 a\u00f1os pas\u00f3 de 4,04% a 4,25% y el tipo de dep\u00f3sito a un a\u00f1o de nuevo alcanz\u00f3 los niveles de 5,55% (se espera que para finales de este a\u00f1o el BOE suba los tipos en 225 puntos b\u00e1sicos).<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

En Estados Unidos, los datos de empleo del pasado viernes ya comentados en nuestro morning meeting<\/a><\/i> de ayer, consiguieron tambi\u00e9n que los bonos a corto cayeran de precio, con el treasury<\/i> a 2 a\u00f1os llegando de nuevo al 4,30%. No olvidemos que el mercado descuenta unas subidas de 125 a 150 p.b. hasta mediados del 2023, lo que se traducir\u00e1 en unas tasas de 4,25% a 4,50%, niveles que nos hacen pensar que es buen momento para empezar a tomar posiciones en bonos a corto plazo.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

En Europa, las subidas se mantendr\u00e1n en el tiempo. Si al tono hawkish<\/i> del BCE, le acompa\u00f1a una inflaci\u00f3n alta (a trav\u00e9s de exigencias de compensaciones v\u00eda salarios e indexaci\u00f3n de pensiones), veremos un aumento de los tipos de inter\u00e9s en los pr\u00f3ximos meses. Para ponernos en situaci\u00f3n, el mercado descuenta un 3% para el verano del 2023. Falta mucho, es cierto, pero los datos mensuales de la inflaci\u00f3n nos dir\u00e1n que camino tomar.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Ayer las bolsas europeas cerraron en negativo, con el Eurostoxx terminando en 3.356 ( -0,55%) y el Ibex 35 en 7.413,50 ( -0,31%). Tambi\u00e9n las bolsas americanas cerraron en rojo, destacando el Nasdaq con una fuerte ca\u00edda de -1,04% hasta 10,542 puntos.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Las bolsas asi\u00e1ticas tambi\u00e9n tuvieron un comportamiento negativo como reacci\u00f3n a los nuevos controles para impedir el acceso a empresas chinas de determinados chips de fabricaci\u00f3n americana.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Hoy tenemos pocos datos macro a tener en cuenta. El FMI publicar\u00e1 su World Economic Outlook<\/i> y no pinta bien. Sin ser datos macro, pero tambi\u00e9n tendr\u00e1 una relevancia medi\u00e1tica. Hablar\u00e1n Phillip Lane ( BCE), Loretta Mester (FED) y Cunliffe y Bauiley (BOE) sobre las perspectivas de tipos de inter\u00e9s. Deberemos esperar hasta el jueves cuando se publicar\u00e1 el dato de inflaci\u00f3n americana, con un posible aumento de la subyacente y disminuci\u00f3n de la general. Este dato ser\u00e1 sin duda el que nos se\u00f1ale los niveles de los bonos y de los tipos a corto-medio plazo.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Por otro lado, empiezan la publicaci\u00f3n de resultados, con la vista puesta en las entidades financieras, las cuales sufrir\u00e1n v\u00eda ingresos relacionados con los mercados financieros, la baja demanda de cr\u00e9dito, y el aumento de provisiones, que no se compensar\u00e1 con las subidas de tipos de inter\u00e9s. Para ver estos resultados deberemos esperar al viernes con JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup y Wells Fargo. <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

D\u00edas de transici\u00f3n hasta el dato de inflaci\u00f3n americano del jueves y los resultados empresariales del viernes, pero muy pendientes del comportamiento de los bonos y del sector asegurador y financiero en el Reino Unido.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Feliz martes.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Gonzalo Ram\u00edrez Celaya<\/strong>
\nDirector de Renta Fija<\/center><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ayer conocimos a los galardonados con el Premio Nobel de Econom\u00eda 2022, tres economistas liderados por el exgobernador de la Reserva Federal: Ben Bernanke; premiados por su investigaci\u00f3n sobre las crisis financieras y el papel de los bancos en estas crisis. Enhorabuena a los tres. No hay que descartar que repitan el a\u00f1o que viene […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":64300,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9721],"tags":[670,723,8780,8779,8782,8781],"class_list":["post-64297","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-morning-meeting","tag-bolsas-europeas","tag-bonos-a-corto-plazo","tag-precio-de-bonos","tag-premio-nobel-de-economia-2022","tag-tono-hawkish-del-bce","tag-treasury-a-2-anos"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nD\u00edas de transici\u00f3n<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"D\u00edas de transici\u00f3n hasta que conozcamos la inflaci\u00f3n americana y los resultados empresariales del viernes, pero muy pendientes del comportamiento de bonos y del sector asegurador y financiero del Reino Unido.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, 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