{"id":62906,"date":"2022-09-07T09:37:05","date_gmt":"2022-09-07T07:37:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/?p=62906"},"modified":"2022-09-07T10:44:40","modified_gmt":"2022-09-07T08:44:40","slug":"decisiones-reserva-federal-y-bce","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/ca\/blog\/decisiones-reserva-federal-y-bce\/","title":{"rendered":"Decisiones de la Reserva Federal y del BCE"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Tras el festivo del lunes en EE.UU., las bolsas americanas extienden las p\u00e9rdidas otra jornada m\u00e1s: Dow Jones -0,55%; S&#038;P 500 -0,41% y Nasdaq -0,74%. Los inversores vuelven de las vacaciones con la misma preocupaci\u00f3n con la que se fueron: alta inflaci\u00f3n, un menor crecimiento econ\u00f3mico y el camino m\u00e1s agresivo que pueda tomar la Reserva Federal en su decisi\u00f3n de subida de tipos.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>A nivel macroecon\u00f3mico, ayer se publicaron en EE.UU. los \u00edndices adelantados de la actividad en el sector servicios del mes de agosto que, realmente, fueron datos bastante contradictorios. Por un lado, la actividad del sector servicios se contrajo en agosto registrando 43,7 puntos vs. 44,2 estimado y por debajo del 47,3 de julio. Un dato que demuestra que el sector servicios se est\u00e1 contrayendo de una manera muy r\u00e1pida. Sin embargo, el \u00edndice adelantado ISM servicios registr\u00f3 un crecimiento pese a una ligera desaceleraci\u00f3n: el dato subi\u00f3 en agosto hasta los 56,9 vs. 55,3 estimado. Este dato, junto con la fortaleza del mercado laboral americano que conocimos el pasado viernes, podr\u00eda dar m\u00e1s margen a la Reserva Federal para ser m\u00e1s agresiva en su batalla contra la inflaci\u00f3n. El famoso gestor de fondos, Bill Ackman, concedi\u00f3 una entrevista a la CNBC en la cual coment\u00f3 que la inflaci\u00f3n bajar\u00e1 al 3,5% &#8211; 4% en menos de doce meses si la Fed sigue subiendo agresivamente los tipos de inter\u00e9s. Veremos qu\u00e9 ocurre. Lo que est\u00e1 claro es que habr\u00e1 mayor nerviosismo, lo que se traduce en una elevada volatilidad, a medida que se acerque el d\u00eda 13 de septiembre con la publicaci\u00f3n del dato de inflaci\u00f3n americana. El mercado descuenta con m\u00e1s probabilidad una subida de 75 p.b. para la pr\u00f3xima reuni\u00f3n en septiembre:<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: center;\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/decisiones-reserva-federal-y-bce-01.png\"><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>En el Viejo Continente contin\u00faa la preocupaci\u00f3n en el mercado de gas. La suspensi\u00f3n del suministro a trav\u00e9s del Nordstream 1 agrava la crisis energ\u00e9tica y presiona al alza las rentabilidades de la deuda p\u00fablica. En estos \u00faltimos d\u00edas hemos visto bastante volatilidad en el <i>bund<\/i>. No cabe duda de que las cosas est\u00e1n mucho peor en Europa que en EE.UU. y el mercado lo sabe. Aquellos pa\u00edses m\u00e1s dependientes del gas ruso, como Alemania, corren el riesgo de no alcanzar sus objetivos de almacenamiento provocando un mayor riesgo de desabastecimiento y racionamiento durante el invierno e intensificando las presiones inflacionistas. Por ello, la decisi\u00f3n que tome el BCE ma\u00f1ana sobre los tipos de inter\u00e9s ser\u00e1 de vital importancia, pues se enfrenta al dilema de combatir la inflaci\u00f3n cueste lo que cueste y frenar el deterioro de la divisa o, si por el contrario, prefiere suavizar el tono a cambio de no retroalimentar el riesgo a una recesi\u00f3n. Decida lo que decida ser\u00e1 interesante conocer cu\u00e1les ser\u00e1n sus futuras actuaciones en materia de pol\u00edtica monetaria, no solo respecto a los tipos de inter\u00e9s, sino al programa de compra de activos.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>En cuanto a la rentabilidad exigida al bono a diez a\u00f1os americano, se eleva hasta el 3,35% con la curva del diez a dos a\u00f1os cada vez m\u00e1s plana y que vuelve a situarse en niveles de principios de julio.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Feliz mi\u00e9rcoles.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><center><strong>Joanna Galindo Huayanay<\/strong><br \/>\nAnalista<\/center><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tras el festivo del lunes en EE.UU., las bolsas americanas extienden las p\u00e9rdidas otra jornada m\u00e1s: Dow Jones -0,55%; S&#038;P 500 -0,41% y Nasdaq -0,74%. Los inversores vuelven de las vacaciones con la misma preocupaci\u00f3n con la que se fueron: alta inflaci\u00f3n, un menor crecimiento econ\u00f3mico y el camino m\u00e1s agresivo que pueda tomar la [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":62914,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9721],"tags":[659,1555,8747,8665,3453,3694,5761,6617],"class_list":["post-62906","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-morning-meeting","tag-bolsas-americanas","tag-crecimiento-economico","tag-elevada-volatilidad","tag-gas-ruso","tag-inflacion","tag-ism-servicios","tag-reserva-federal","tag-tipos-de-interes"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Decisiones de la Reserva Federal y del 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