{"id":37223,"date":"2016-02-11T17:10:06","date_gmt":"2016-02-11T16:10:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.tressis.com\/blog\/?p=21819"},"modified":"2023-05-26T13:24:39","modified_gmt":"2023-05-26T11:24:39","slug":"lecciones-de-una-crisis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/ca\/blog\/lecciones-de-una-crisis\/","title":{"rendered":"Lecciones de una crisis"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>La crisis financiera de 2008 ha sido la mayor desde la gran depresi\u00f3n de 1929. Aqu\u00ed no vamos a centrarnos en las causas de la misma si no en las consecuencias que las medidas que se tomaron tienen y tendr\u00e1n en los ahorradores e inversores.<\/p>\n<p>Esta es, b\u00e1sicamente, una crisis de deuda que se trata de solucionar mediante inyecciones masivas de dinero por parte de los Bancos Centrales para tratar de soportar tanto a los Gobiernos como al Sistema Financiero.<\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p>De la misma se sale con unos niveles de deuda p\u00fablica que, en los principales pa\u00edses europeos\u200b, se acerca peligrosamente al 100% del PIB de cada pa\u00eds.<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/grafico1.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-21826\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-21826 size-full aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/grafico1.png\" alt=\"grafico1\" width=\"688\" height=\"343\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/grafico2.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-21825\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-21825 size-full aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/grafico2.png\" alt=\"grafico2\" width=\"681\" height=\"241\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>En este sentido, es importante destacar el papel que la p\u00e9rdida de la moneda nacional por parte de los \u200bpa\u00edses europeos tiene sobre la solvencia\u200b \u200bde estos.<\/p>\n<p>Cuando se tiene moneda propia, la solvencia en t\u00e9rminos nominales, es ilimitada ya que\u200b,\u200b \u200bcuando necesitan, s\u00f3lo tienen que imprimir billetes. Actualmente la potestad de imprimir moneda est\u00e1 en manos del Banco Central Europeo y por tanto, la solvencia del pa\u00eds vendr\u00e1 determinada por la capacidad que tengan de lograr financiaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n<p>La cesi\u00f3n de soberan\u00eda que supone la introducci\u00f3n del euro como moneda europea nos trae la primera consecuencia, la garant\u00eda de los Estados ya no es ilimitada sino que va a depender de su propia solvencia. Es decir, deberemos empezar a cuestionarnos el valor de la garant\u00eda de los Estados en situaciones de crisis extremas.<\/p>\n<p>En esta situaci\u00f3n, el papel del Estado como garante y protector final de los ciudadanos va a ir disminuyendo y esto nos trae la segunda consecuencia, a partir de ahora ser\u00e1n los inversores los que corran con el riesgo de su inversi\u00f3n.<br \/>\nEn Espa\u00f1a, el cociente de Deuda\/PIB es cercano al 100%, es decir, debemos tanto como el valor de todos los bienes y servicios que producimos anualmente y adem\u00e1s, necesitamos inversores extranjeros para financiarnos.<\/p>\n<p>La gran dificultad de reducir ese porcentaje en un entorno de bajo crecimiento, baja inflaci\u00f3n, y con d\u00e9ficits en el entorno del 3% hace que sea crucial el precio que paguemos por esa deuda y es el Banco Central Europeo (BCE) el que est\u00e1 haciendo que el coste de la deuda de los Estados, familias y empresas sea el menor posible.<\/p>\n<p>Esto nos trae la tercera \u200by cuarta consecuencias, \u200bpor un lado, \u200bla actuaci\u00f3n del BCE tratando de dinamizar \u200buna econom\u00eda europea \u200bmuy d\u00e9bil va a dejarnos tipos de inter\u00e9s muy cerca de 0 durante bastante tiempo\u200b \u200by por otro lado, la dependencia que, de la financiaci\u00f3n del BCE, tenemos la mayor\u00eda de los pa\u00edses europeos, nos va a obligar a continuar con las pol\u00edticas econ\u00f3micas de ajuste y aumento de la competitividad ya que si no se encarecer\u00e1 el coste de nuestra financiaci\u00f3n, situaci\u00f3n insostenible a medio plazo con nuestro nivel de deuda.<\/p>\n<p>Ese entorno en el que muchos pa\u00edses dependemos de la financiaci\u00f3n exterior, junto con la reticencia de los Gobiernos a aceptar la p\u00e9rdida de soberan\u00eda que implica la construcci\u00f3n de los Estados Unidos de Europa, trae la quinta consecuencia, frecuentes per\u00edodos de alta volatilidad y fluctuaci\u00f3n en los mercados.<\/p>\n<p>Este nuevo entorno complica mucho la situaci\u00f3n de los inversores conservadores y hace cada vez m\u00e1s conveniente contar con ayuda profesional para organizar nuestros ahorros.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Luis Aramburu L\u00f3pez-D\u00f3riga<\/strong><br \/>\nDirector de Tressis en Cantabria<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La crisis financiera de 2008 ha sido la mayor desde la gran depresi\u00f3n de 1929. Aqu\u00ed no vamos a centrarnos en las causas de la misma si no en las consecuencias que las medidas que se tomaron tienen y tendr\u00e1n en los ahorradores e inversores. Esta es, b\u00e1sicamente, una crisis de deuda que se trata [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":33546,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[559,998,1618,1631,1987,2396,2542,2757,3609,4314,4690,6227],"class_list":["post-37223","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-varios","tag-bce","tag-cantabria","tag-crisis","tag-crisis-extremas","tag-deudapib","tag-entorno-de-bajo-crecimiento","tag-euro","tag-financiera","tag-inversores-conservadores","tag-moneda-nacional","tag-papel-del-estado","tag-soberania"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Lecciones de una crisis<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Cuando se tiene moneda propia, la solvencia en t\u00e9rminos 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