{"id":28214,"date":"2018-02-20T10:08:24","date_gmt":"2018-02-20T09:08:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.tressis.com\/blog\/?p=28214"},"modified":"2023-05-26T13:16:49","modified_gmt":"2023-05-26T11:16:49","slug":"adriza-neutral-comentario-semanal-20-02-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/ca\/blog\/adriza-neutral-comentario-semanal-20-02-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"Adriza Neutral. Comentario semanal (20\/02\/2018)"},"content":{"rendered":"

Tras la tempestad vuelve la calma y la oportunidad para racionalizar los factores perturbadores.<\/p>\n

Los \u00edndices de renta variable europeos y americanos han recuperado un 5% y 8%, respectivamente, desde los m\u00ednimos. Como siempre, empecemos con los resultados:
\n\"\"
\nLa recuperaci\u00f3n de las bolsas durante la \u00faltima semana ha permitido mejorar la rentabilidad anual hasta el -0,71%, lo que supone una mejora significativa sobre la marcha del fondo que coment\u00e1bamos la semana pasada. As\u00ed, la rentabilidad atribuida a los activos de renta variable queda en el -0,25%, correspondiendo pr\u00e1cticamente el resto a la cartera de renta fija. La exposici\u00f3n a divisa por los activos denominados en moneda distinta del euro apenas est\u00e1 teniendo impacto significativo en lo que llevamos de mes, si bien con el euro ya apreciado hasta niveles actuales de 1,2410 d\u00f3lares, su impacto impl\u00edcito en la rentabilidad del a\u00f1o ronda el -0,90%.<\/p>\n

Seguimos cosechando buenos datos de sentimiento y expectativas de los agentes econ\u00f3micos en Estados Unidos, esta vez de los consumidores a trav\u00e9s del \u00edndice de la Universidad de Michigan, lo que sigue dando soporte a las buenas expectativas macroecon\u00f3micas. Su lectura, seg\u00fan los analistas, vaticina incrementos del consumo cercanos al 5%, lo que deber\u00eda llevarnos a restar importancia a los recientes datos de ventas minoristas correspondientes a enero, algo m\u00e1s d\u00e9biles de lo esperado.<\/p>\n

En Europa la coyuntura econ\u00f3mica contin\u00faa sincroniz\u00e1ndose con Estados Unidos, aunque con matices a los que deberemos prestar atenci\u00f3n: los datos de crecimiento del PIB de la eurozona estuvieron b\u00e1sicamente en l\u00ednea, si bien se observ\u00f3 que la demanda interna ralentiza su ritmo de crecimiento, frente a la externa que, al contrario, sigue m\u00e1s fuerte; algo que a\u00fan no nos alarma, en la medida en que las encuestas de sentimiento mantengan su buen tono.<\/p>\n

Seguimos avanzando en la temporada de publicaci\u00f3n de resultados. Habiendo publicado ya el 80% de las compa\u00f1\u00edas del S&P500, los beneficios empresariales apuntan a un crecimiento anual del 11%, frente al 25% en Europa, si bien en este caso el ritmo de publicaciones va con algo m\u00e1s de retraso. El buen entorno macroecon\u00f3mico ofrece sustento a los beneficios, y, en definitiva, unos m\u00faltiplos de valoraci\u00f3n atractivos para permanecer en renta variable compatibles con tres o cuatro subidas de tipos en Estados Unidos para 2018.<\/p>\n

Aunque no descartamos repuntes adicionales de volatilidad, la \u00faltima semana hemos comprobado c\u00f3mo el mercado ha ido racionalizando el rebote de los tipos de inter\u00e9s de largo plazo, algo que ya dec\u00edamos en el anterior comentario. A la vez, nuestro escenario central de tipos en Estados Unidos se ha completado en un 90% en apenas dos meses y, aunque no descartamos leves repuntes adicionales, nos ha llevado a cambiar la posici\u00f3n corta en bonos americanos por las de sus hom\u00f3logos alemanes.<\/p>\n

Recuerden: si las letras del Tesoro ofrecen rentabilidades negativas, no hay retorno sin riesgo<\/strong> y, como siempre, \u201cTengan cuidado ah\u00ed fuera\u201d.<\/p>\n

Rafael Pe\u00f1a Gorospe<\/strong>
\nGestor de Adriza Neutral<\/center><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Tras la tempestad vuelve la calma y la oportunidad para racionalizar los factores perturbadores.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":24654,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[1846,2102,2206,2542,2556,2577,2655,3338,4856,5436,5643,5650,5981,6776,6920],"class_list":["post-28214","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tressis-gestion","tag-demanda-interna","tag-dolar","tag-eeuu","tag-euro","tag-europa","tag-eurozona","tag-exposicion-a-divisa","tag-incrementos-consumo","tag-pib","tag-recuperacion-bolsas","tag-renta-variable-americana","tag-renta-variable-europea","tag-sp500","tag-universidad-de-michigan","tag-volatilidad"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAdriza Neutral. 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