{"id":119621,"date":"2026-10-20T09:54:11","date_gmt":"2026-10-20T07:54:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/?p=119621"},"modified":"2026-10-20T13:47:57","modified_gmt":"2026-10-20T11:47:57","slug":"riesgo-geopolitico-impulsa-crudo-rentabilidades","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/ca\/blog\/riesgo-geopolitico-impulsa-crudo-rentabilidades\/","title":{"rendered":"El riesgo geopol\u00edtico impulsa el crudo y las rentabilidades"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Los mercados financieros vuelven a mostrar signos de tensi\u00f3n ante la intensificaci\u00f3n del conflicto en Oriente Medio. Seg\u00fan informa <em>Middle East Eye<\/em>, los hut\u00edes de Yemen han anunciado, mediante un comunicado, ataques contra una planta de Saudi Aramco, el aeropuerto de Riad y una base militar saud\u00ed. La noticia ha reforzado las presiones alcistas sobre el precio del crudo, que ya ven\u00eda registrando avances ante las nuevas amenazas de Ir\u00e1n sobre el estrecho de Ormuz, una v\u00eda estrat\u00e9gica para el transporte mundial de petr\u00f3leo.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>En este contexto, el <strong>brent super\u00f3 nuevamente los 110 d\u00f3lares por barril<\/strong>, mientras que el West Texas Intermediate (WTI) termin\u00f3 por encima de los 103 d\u00f3lares. La evoluci\u00f3n de los precios energ\u00e9ticos contin\u00faa condicionada por el riesgo geopol\u00edtico y sus posibles implicaciones sobre la oferta mundial de crudo y las expectativas de inflaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: center; margin-bottom: 10px;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/tressis-vision\/?utm_source=web_publica&amp;utm_medium=direct&amp;utm_campaign=descarga_paper&amp;utm_term=tressisvision&amp;utm_content=blog_MMV\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/CTA-Tressis-vision-para-articulos-blog.jpg\" alt=\"Informe mensual - Tressis visi\u00f3n\" width=\"800\" height=\"354\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-67199 size-full\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 400 \/ 177;\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/CTA-Tressis-vision-para-articulos-blog.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/CTA-Tressis-vision-para-articulos-blog-300x133.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/CTA-Tressis-vision-para-articulos-blog-768x340.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/a><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Renta fija: repunte de las rentabilidades en Europa y Estados Unidos<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>En los mercados de deuda soberana europea, las rentabilidades registraron una evoluci\u00f3n alcista. El rendimiento del bono alem\u00e1n a diez a\u00f1os aument\u00f3 aproximadamente 3 puntos b\u00e1sicos, hasta el 3,45%, mientras que el correspondiente al bono a dos a\u00f1os avanz\u00f3 2 pb, hasta el 3,10%.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>En cuanto a las expectativas de pol\u00edtica monetaria, el mercado prev\u00e9 que el Banco Central Europeo (BCE) mantenga los tipos de inter\u00e9s en su pr\u00f3xima reuni\u00f3n. No obstante, los inversores siguen contemplando la posibilidad de una \u00faltima subida de tipos en diciembre.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<br \/>\nExpectativas de tipos de inter\u00e9s Zona del euro<\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image001.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1275\" height=\"757\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-119622\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image001.png 1275w, https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image001-300x178.png 300w, https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image001-1024x608.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image001-768x456.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1275px) 100vw, 1275px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>En Francia, la persistente inestabilidad pol\u00edtica y social contin\u00faa generando incertidumbre, pese a las expectativas de un posible acuerdo presupuestario. En este contexto, la rentabilidad del bono franc\u00e9s a diez a\u00f1os repunt\u00f3 14 pb, hasta el 4,93%, mientras que la referencia a dos a\u00f1os avanz\u00f3 7 pb, hasta el 3,62%. Como consecuencia, la <strong>prima de riesgo francesa se ampli\u00f3 hasta los 148 pb<\/strong>, reflejando el aumento de la percepci\u00f3n de riesgo por parte de los inversores.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Al otro lado del Atl\u00e1ntico, la deuda soberana estadounidense tambi\u00e9n experiment\u00f3 un repunte de las rentabilidades. Los rendimientos de los bonos a diez y dos a\u00f1os aumentaron 7 pb, hasta el 5,14% y el 4,77%, respectivamente.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Renta variable: ca\u00eddas generalizadas en Europa y evoluci\u00f3n mixta en Wall Street<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Las principales bolsas europeas cerraron la sesi\u00f3n con descensos generalizados, condicionadas por la incertidumbre geopol\u00edtica y las tensiones pol\u00edticas y sociales en la regi\u00f3n. El FTSE MIB italiano encabez\u00f3 las p\u00e9rdidas entre los principales \u00edndices europeos, con una ca\u00edda del 1,55%. El <strong>IBEX 35 retrocedi\u00f3 un 1,49%<\/strong>, aunque logr\u00f3 mantenerse por encima de los 19.000 puntos. Por su parte, el DAX 40 alem\u00e1n cedi\u00f3 un 1,18%, el CAC 40 franc\u00e9s perdi\u00f3 un 1,11% y el Euro Stoxx 50 descendi\u00f3 un 0,96%.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>En Wall Street, la evoluci\u00f3n fue mixta. El S&#038;P 500 avanz\u00f3 un 0,41%, mientras que el Nasdaq destac\u00f3 con una revalorizaci\u00f3n del 1,11%. En contraste, el Dow Jones cerr\u00f3 con una ligera ca\u00edda del 0,07%.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Indicadores macroecon\u00f3micos<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>La sesi\u00f3n estuvo marcada por la escasez de referencias macroecon\u00f3micas relevantes, aunque los indicadores publicados ofrecieron se\u00f1ales diferenciadas sobre la evoluci\u00f3n de las principales econom\u00edas mundiales.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>En Estados Unidos, el \u00edndice de confianza de los constructores elaborado por la Asociaci\u00f3n Nacional de Constructores de Viviendas (NAHB) descendi\u00f3 en octubre hasta los <strong>29 puntos, su nivel m\u00e1s bajo en catorce a\u00f1os<\/strong>. La lectura qued\u00f3 por debajo de los 31 puntos previstos por el consenso y de los 32 registrados el mes anterior, lo que apunta a un deterioro de la confianza en el sector.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>En China, el <strong>producto interior bruto (PIB) creci\u00f3 un 4,5% interanual en el tercer trimestre<\/strong>, ligeramente por encima del 4,4% esperado por el mercado. El dato refleja una evoluci\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica relativamente s\u00f3lida y podr\u00eda reducir, al menos a corto plazo, las expectativas de nuevos est\u00edmulos, al situar el crecimiento en l\u00ednea con los objetivos oficiales para el conjunto del ejercicio.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Agenda macroecon\u00f3mica y empresarial<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>La agenda econ\u00f3mica de hoy estar\u00e1 marcada por la publicaci\u00f3n de varios indicadores relevantes a ambos lados del Atl\u00e1ntico.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>En Europa, destacar\u00e1n los precios de producci\u00f3n industrial de Alemania correspondientes a septiembre, la tasa de desempleo del Reino Unido de agosto \u2014que se espera que permanezca en el 4,9%\u2014 y el \u00edndice ZEW de confianza econ\u00f3mica de Alemania de octubre.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>En Estados Unidos, la atenci\u00f3n se centrar\u00e1 en la encuesta de empleo ADP de octubre, el \u00edndice manufacturero de la Reserva Federal de Filadelfia y las referencias del mercado inmobiliario correspondientes a septiembre.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>En el \u00e1mbito empresarial, la jornada estar\u00e1 marcada por la publicaci\u00f3n de resultados de compa\u00f1\u00edas relevantes de Europa y Estados Unidos. Entre las principales referencias destacan Deutsche B\u00f6rse, ABB, MSCI, General Electric, General Motors y Netflix.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><center><strong>Jessica Steuer Barbosa<\/strong><br \/>\nAnalista<\/center><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Los mercados financieros vuelven a mostrar signos de tensi\u00f3n ante la intensificaci\u00f3n del conflicto en Oriente Medio. Seg\u00fan informa Middle East Eye, los hut\u00edes de Yemen han anunciado, mediante un comunicado, ataques contra una planta de Saudi Aramco, el aeropuerto de Riad y una base militar saud\u00ed. La noticia ha reforzado las presiones alcistas sobre [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":32,"featured_media":119627,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9721],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-119621","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-morning-meeting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>El riesgo geopol\u00edtico impulsa el crudo y las rentabilidades<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, nofollow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ca_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"El riesgo geopol\u00edtico impulsa el crudo y las rentabilidades\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Los mercados financieros vuelven a mostrar signos de tensi\u00f3n ante la intensificaci\u00f3n del conflicto en Oriente Medio. Seg\u00fan informa Middle East Eye, los hut\u00edes de Yemen han anunciado, mediante un comunicado, ataques contra una planta de Saudi Aramco, el aeropuerto de Riad y una base militar saud\u00ed. 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