{"id":119476,"date":"2026-10-02T09:43:43","date_gmt":"2026-10-02T07:43:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/?p=119476"},"modified":"2026-10-02T09:44:22","modified_gmt":"2026-10-02T07:44:22","slug":"dudas-sobre-suministro-crudo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/ca\/blog\/dudas-sobre-suministro-crudo\/","title":{"rendered":"Dudas sobre el suministro de crudo"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>La recuperaci\u00f3n del tr\u00e1nsito por el estrecho de Ormuz vuelve a ponerse en duda. Tres petroleros con bandera de Liberia fueron alcanzados el martes por proyectiles de origen desconocido mientras atravesaban el paso estrat\u00e9gico, un incidente que se ha conocido hoy y que vuelve a elevar la incertidumbre sobre el transporte de crudo. El Brent lleg\u00f3 a superar de nuevo los 100 d\u00f3lares por barril, mientras Ir\u00e1n no registr\u00f3 cargas de petr\u00f3leo durante septiembre, frente a unos 250.000 barriles diarios en agosto, seg\u00fan estimaciones preliminares de Bloomberg.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><strong>A este escenario se suma ahora China<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Las refiner\u00edas chinas han suspendido las exportaciones de productos petrol\u00edferos hacia destinos fuera de Hong Kong y Macao durante octubre, hasta nuevo aviso de Pek\u00edn, con el objetivo de <strong>preservar el abastecimiento interno<\/strong>. La medida a\u00f1ade presi\u00f3n a un mercado de di\u00e9sel, gasolina y combustible de aviaci\u00f3n que ya se encuentra tensionado. Al mismo tiempo, Estados Unidos est\u00e1 presionando a Francia y Alemania <strong>para que liberen parte de sus reservas estrat\u00e9gicas de di\u00e9sel<\/strong>, mientras varios pa\u00edses europeos estudian una posible liberaci\u00f3n coordinada.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: center; margin-bottom: 10px;\"><a \nhref=\"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/tressis-vision\/?utm_source=web_publica&amp;utm_medium=direct&amp;utm_campaign=descarga_paper&amp;utm_term=tressisvision&amp;utm_content=blog_MMV\" \ntarget=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/CTA-Tressis-vision-para-articulos-blog.jpg\" alt=\"Informe mensual - Tressis visi\u00f3n\" width=\"800\" height=\"354\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-67199 size-full\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 400 \/ 177;\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/CTA-Tressis-vision-para-articulos-blog.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/CTA-Tressis-vision-para-articulos-blog-300x133.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/CTA-Tressis-vision-para-articulos-blog-768x340.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/a><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><strong>En el frente macroecon\u00f3mico<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Los datos publicados siguen mostrando una econom\u00eda estadounidense que mantiene cierta resistencia. La actividad manufacturera continu\u00f3 expandi\u00e9ndose en septiembre, con un ISM de 54,5, apoyado por la mejora de los nuevos pedidos y del empleo. <strong>En Europa<\/strong>, la mejora de la industria fue bastante generalizada, con Espa\u00f1a volviendo a terreno expansivo al situar su PMI manufacturero en 51 puntos, mientras Alemania alcanz\u00f3 53,9 y la eurozona 52,9, m\u00e1ximo desde mayo de 2022. El problema est\u00e1 en los precios: el componente de precios pagados del ISM estadounidense se dispar\u00f3 hasta 77,9 puntos, su nivel m\u00e1s alto desde mayo, mientras en Europa tambi\u00e9n volvieron a acelerarse los precios de los insumos y de venta.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><strong>La renta fija vivi\u00f3 precisamente una sesi\u00f3n de mucha volatilidad<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Las rentabilidades de los <strong>treasuries<\/strong> llegaron a repuntar con fuerza durante la jornada, pero posteriormente se produjo un <em>rally<\/em> en la deuda estadounidense que llev\u00f3 al diez a\u00f1os a cerrar en el 5,23%, 5,1 puntos b\u00e1sicos por debajo del cierre anterior, mientras el dos a\u00f1os cay\u00f3 10,4 p.b. En Europa, el comportamiento fue m\u00e1s desigual, con las rentabilidades subiendo en Francia e Italia y bajando en Alemania y Reino Unido.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>El giro de los <em>treasuries<\/em> se produjo despu\u00e9s de que Philip Jefferson, vicepresidente de la Fed, se\u00f1alara que puede ser necesario disponer de m\u00e1s tiempo para determinar si hacen falta nuevas subidas de tipos. El mensaje ayud\u00f3 a reducir el temor a una subida inmediata y permiti\u00f3 que los bonos recuperasen parte del terreno perdido durante la sesi\u00f3n, dando adem\u00e1s algo de ox\u00edgeno a Wall Street.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>El <strong>mercado laboral<\/strong> tampoco est\u00e1 mostrando una se\u00f1al clara de enfriamiento. Las peticiones iniciales de desempleo descendieron hasta 197.000, frente a las 200.000 esperadas, y las solicitudes continuadas bajaron hasta 1,701 millones. Adem\u00e1s, las empresas estadounidenses anunciaron en septiembre el menor n\u00famero de despidos para ese mes desde 2022.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>La renta variable europea termin\u00f3 acusando con fuerza la combinaci\u00f3n de petr\u00f3leo y tipos, con el Ibex 35 dej\u00e1ndose un 2,17%, el DAX un 1,03%, el CAC 40 un 1,62% y el FTSE 100 un 1,68%. Wall Street, sin embargo, consigui\u00f3 borrar las p\u00e9rdidas iniciales y cerr\u00f3 con ligeras subidas: el S&#038;P 500 avanz\u00f3 un 0,19%, mientras que el Nasdaq y el Dow Jones ganaron un 0,04% cada uno.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Hoy conoceremos el informe oficial de empleo en Estados Unidos, en el que las estimaciones apuntan a la creaci\u00f3n de unos 90.000 puestos de trabajo y una tasa de paro del 4,1%, unas cifras que ser\u00e1n relevantes para la Fed. En Europa, la atenci\u00f3n estar\u00e1 puesta en el dato de IPC de la eurozona.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Feliz viernes,<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><center><strong>Gabriel Antonio Justiniano<\/strong><br \/>\nAnalista<\/center><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La recuperaci\u00f3n del tr\u00e1nsito por el estrecho de Ormuz vuelve a ponerse en duda. Tres petroleros con bandera de Liberia fueron alcanzados el martes por proyectiles de origen desconocido mientras atravesaban el paso estrat\u00e9gico, un incidente que se ha conocido hoy y que vuelve a elevar la incertidumbre sobre el transporte de crudo. El Brent [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":119478,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9721],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-119476","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-morning-meeting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Dudas sobre el suministro de crudo<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, nofollow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ca_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Dudas sobre el suministro de crudo\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"La recuperaci\u00f3n del tr\u00e1nsito por el estrecho de Ormuz vuelve a ponerse en duda. 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