{"id":117159,"date":"2026-05-04T09:08:50","date_gmt":"2026-05-04T07:08:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/?p=117159"},"modified":"2026-05-04T09:09:33","modified_gmt":"2026-05-04T07:09:33","slug":"renta-variable-recupera-pese-incertidumbre","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/ca\/blog\/renta-variable-recupera-pese-incertidumbre\/","title":{"rendered":"La renta variable recupera impulso pese a la incertidumbre"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Arranca la semana con unos mercados que, pese a la acumulaci\u00f3n de riesgos, mantienen un <b>tono constructivo<\/b> apoyado en los <b>resultados empresariales<\/b>. El <b>S&amp;P 500<\/b> avanz\u00f3 un +0,3% en la sesi\u00f3n del viernes, encadenando su quinta semana consecutiva al alza, mientras que el <b>Nasdaq 100<\/b> destac\u00f3 con una subida del +0,9%, impulsado principalmente por el sector tecnol\u00f3gico. Por el contrario, el <b>Dow Jones Industrial Average<\/b> retrocedi\u00f3 un -0,3%, reflejando una <b>rotaci\u00f3n parcial<\/b> hacia segmentos de mayor crecimiento.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Un abril especialmente positivo para la renta variable<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>A nivel mensual, abril cerr\u00f3 con una revalorizaci\u00f3n superior al +10% para el <b>S&amp;P 500<\/b>, lo que supone el mejor registro desde noviembre de 2020. Este movimiento est\u00e1 respaldado por una <b>temporada de resultados s\u00f3lida<\/b>: aproximadamente el 81% de las compa\u00f1\u00edas ha superado las estimaciones de beneficios del primer trimestre, seg\u00fan datos de Bloomberg. Este factor ha compensado el impacto negativo derivado del encarecimiento de la energ\u00eda y de la incertidumbre geopol\u00edtica.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><strong>El petr\u00f3leo corrige tras los \u00faltimos avances diplom\u00e1ticos<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>En cuanto a las <b>materias primas<\/b>, el crudo corrigi\u00f3 al final de la semana. El <b>West Texas Intermediate (WTI)<\/b> descendi\u00f3 un -2,8% el viernes, situ\u00e1ndose en 102,17 d\u00f3lares por barril, tras conocerse avances en las conversaciones entre Estados Unidos e Ir\u00e1n.<\/p>\n<p>Adem\u00e1s, el domingo la <b>OPEP<\/b>, en su primera reuni\u00f3n tras la salida de Emiratos \u00c1rabes Unidos, ha anunciado un aumento de la producci\u00f3n, lo cual podr\u00eda dar un respiro adicional a los mercados si se materializa en las pr\u00f3ximas semanas. Este movimiento contribuy\u00f3 a aliviar parcialmente las <b>tensiones inflacionistas<\/b> a corto plazo, aunque el nivel de precios sigue siendo elevado en perspectiva hist\u00f3rica reciente.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Movimientos en renta fija<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>En los mercados de <b>renta fija<\/b>, la sesi\u00f3n del viernes estuvo marcada por ligeros repuntes en las tires estadounidenses. El rendimiento del bono a <b>diez a\u00f1os<\/b> aument\u00f3 en un punto b\u00e1sico hasta el 4,38%, en un contexto de ajuste de expectativas sobre la pol\u00edtica monetaria.<\/p>\n<p>Europa, con un movimiento m\u00e1s contenido, registr\u00f3 en la referencia brit\u00e1nica a <b>diez a\u00f1os<\/b> un descenso de cinco puntos b\u00e1sicos hasta el 4,96%, mientras el resto de mercados cerraban por el d\u00eda del Trabajo.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Entorno macroecon\u00f3mico y presiones inflacionistas<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Desde el punto de vista macroecon\u00f3mico, el entorno sigue caracterizado por una combinaci\u00f3n de <b>crecimiento moderado<\/b> y <b>presiones inflacionistas persistentes<\/b>. En Estados Unidos, la actividad manufacturera contin\u00faa en expansi\u00f3n, aunque con un aumento significativo en los costes de producci\u00f3n debido al encarecimiento energ\u00e9tico. Este contexto ha influido en el tono de la <b>Reserva Federal<\/b>.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><strong>La Fed adopta un tono m\u00e1s dependiente de los datos<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>La \u00faltima reuni\u00f3n del banco central mantuvo los <strong>tipos sin cambios<\/strong>, pero destac\u00f3 por el incremento en el n\u00famero de votos discrepantes dentro del comit\u00e9. Varios miembros se\u00f1alaron que ya no es apropiado asumir que el siguiente movimiento ser\u00e1 necesariamente un recorte, abriendo la puerta a una pol\u00edtica m\u00e1s <b>dependiente de los datos<\/b>.<\/p>\n<p>Este cambio de matiz ha tenido reflejo en la evoluci\u00f3n de la curva de tipos y en las expectativas del mercado.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Europa, con bancos centrales prudentes<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Europa, el <b>Banco Central Europeo<\/b> y el <b>Banco de Inglaterra<\/b> optaron tambi\u00e9n por mantener sus tipos de referencia sin modificaciones. Ambos organismos reconocieron un aumento de los riesgos, especialmente ligados a la evoluci\u00f3n de los precios energ\u00e9ticos, <b>pero<\/b> evitaron un giro hacia una postura m\u00e1s restrictiva.<\/p>\n<p>Esta decisi\u00f3n contribuy\u00f3 a estabilizar los mercados en la segunda mitad de la semana.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><center><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/tressis-vision\/?utm_source=web_publica&amp;utm_medium=direct&amp;utm_campaign=descarga_paper&amp;utm_term=tressisvision&amp;utm_content=blog_MMV\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-67199 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/CTA-Tressis-vision-para-articulos-blog.jpg\" alt=\"Informe mensual - Tressis visi\u00f3n\" width=\"800\" height=\"354\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/CTA-Tressis-vision-para-articulos-blog.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/CTA-Tressis-vision-para-articulos-blog-300x133.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/CTA-Tressis-vision-para-articulos-blog-768x340.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/a><\/center><br \/>\n&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Nuevas tensiones comerciales<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Pero veremos c\u00f3mo abre hoy el mercado despu\u00e9s del anuncio de Estados Unidos de elevar los aranceles sobre coches y camiones procedentes de la Uni\u00f3n Europea hasta el 25%, una medida que introduce nuevas incertidumbres en el comercio internacional.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Asia y la revisi\u00f3n de China<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Por \u00faltimo, en Asia, destaca la revisi\u00f3n de la perspectiva crediticia de <b>China<\/b> por parte de Moody\u2019s de \u201cnegativa\u201d a \u201cestable\u201d, manteniendo su calificaci\u00f3n en A1. La agencia subraya la capacidad del pa\u00eds para sostener el crecimiento a pesar de los desaf\u00edos estructurales, apoyado en su elevado ahorro interno y en la diversificaci\u00f3n de su econom\u00eda.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Claves macroecon\u00f3micas de la semana<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>De cara a los pr\u00f3ximos d\u00edas, la atenci\u00f3n se centrar\u00e1 en una bater\u00eda relevante de indicadores macroecon\u00f3micos. Europa, publicar\u00e1 las lecturas finales de los <b>PMI de abril<\/b>, junto con los datos de servicios y el \u00edndice compuesto, as\u00ed como los precios de producci\u00f3n, que permitir\u00e1n evaluar la evoluci\u00f3n de la inflaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n<p>En Estados Unidos, el foco estar\u00e1 en el sector servicios y el mercado laboral, con referencias como el <b>ISM de servicios<\/b>, las vacantes <b>JOLTS<\/b> y el informe <b>ADP<\/b>. El viernes se conocer\u00e1n las <b>n\u00f3minas no agr\u00edcolas<\/b>, la tasa de desempleo y los salarios, variables clave para la toma de decisiones de la Reserva Federal. Adem\u00e1s, el \u00edndice de confianza del consumidor de la <b>Universidad de Michigan<\/b> aportar\u00e1 informaci\u00f3n adicional sobre las expectativas de gasto.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Buena semana.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><center><strong>Jorge Gonz\u00e1lez G\u00f3mez<\/strong><br \/>\nDirector de An\u00e1lisis<\/center><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Arranca la semana con unos mercados que, pese a la acumulaci\u00f3n de riesgos, mantienen un tono constructivo apoyado en los resultados empresariales. El S&amp;P 500 avanz\u00f3 un +0,3% en la sesi\u00f3n del viernes, encadenando su quinta semana consecutiva al alza, mientras que el Nasdaq 100 destac\u00f3 con una subida del +0,9%, impulsado principalmente por el [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":117161,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9721],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-117159","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-morning-meeting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>La renta variable recupera impulso pese a la incertidumbre<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, nofollow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ca_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"La renta variable recupera impulso pese a la incertidumbre\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Arranca la semana con unos mercados que, pese a la acumulaci\u00f3n de riesgos, mantienen un tono constructivo apoyado en los resultados empresariales. 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