{"id":104306,"date":"2024-12-23T10:21:42","date_gmt":"2024-12-23T09:21:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/?p=104306"},"modified":"2024-12-26T10:40:09","modified_gmt":"2024-12-26T09:40:09","slug":"la-inflacion-y-las-politicas-de-trump","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/ca\/blog\/la-inflacion-y-las-politicas-de-trump\/","title":{"rendered":"La inflaci\u00f3n y las pol\u00edticas de Trump, los dos factores m\u00e1s importantes de cara a 2025."},"content":{"rendered":"

Los \u00faltimos datos de inflaci\u00f3n en la eurozona y Estados Unidos reflejan un IPC y un PCE estancados. Aunque el mercado contin\u00faa tranquilo, lo preocupante es que hace meses que la tasa mensual e interanual se mantiene sin cambios, y que el factor energ\u00e9tico ha dejado de funcionar como efecto desinflacionista.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

En un informe esencial, los economistas Claudio Borio, Boris Hoffmann y Egon Zakrajsek, del Bank for International Settlements, concluyen que el aumento de la masa monetaria en 2020 fue el causante de la inflaci\u00f3n que hoy sufrimos. Ese aumento de la cantidad de dinero en el sistema no fue por casualidad, sino por un incremento sin precedentes del gasto p\u00fablico en un periodo de cierre de la econom\u00eda. Es por ello por lo que debemos prestar atenci\u00f3n a la evoluci\u00f3n del gasto p\u00fablico<\/a> en 2025 para entender si la inflaci\u00f3n est\u00e1 reduci\u00e9ndose o no<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"Informe<\/a><\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n

Cambio radical en la pol\u00edtica norteamericana<\/strong><\/h2>\n

La decisi\u00f3n del partido republicano de levantar el techo de deuda en 1,5 billones de d\u00f3lares a cambio de una reducci\u00f3n de 2,5 billones de d\u00f3lares del gasto obligatorio (mandatory spending<\/i>) es un cambio radical en la pol\u00edtica norteamericana. Supondr\u00eda la primera ocasi\u00f3n en la que se pone freno a la parte del presupuesto m\u00e1s controvertida y, adem\u00e1s, la que m\u00e1s crece en los \u00faltimos diez a\u00f1os.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

La inflaci\u00f3n y las pol\u00edticas de Trump<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Otro factor importante para tener en cuenta en los pr\u00f3ximos meses es la negociaci\u00f3n de los aranceles. Ya explicamos en este blog que los aranceles no causan inflaci\u00f3n<\/a> porque no suponen m\u00e1s unidades monetarias en circulaci\u00f3n. Donald Trump ya ha anunciado que la Uni\u00f3n Europea sufrir\u00e1 una subida de aranceles desde el primer d\u00eda<\/strong>, si no aumenta las importaciones de petr\u00f3leo y gas de Estados Unidos. No podemos olvidar que en algunos pa\u00edses se ha disparado la importaci\u00f3n de gas ruso, petr\u00f3leo iran\u00ed y carb\u00f3n, como alerta la propia Comisi\u00f3n Europea.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Todos los aranceles son negociables<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Los aranceles a China son inevitables porque el gigante chino mantiene la prohibici\u00f3n a muchas empresas estadounidenses y las disputas en la OMC se elevan a m\u00e1s de 600.000 millones de d\u00f3lares. En el caso de la Uni\u00f3n Europea, todos los aranceles son negociables si en los principales pa\u00edses de Europa se levantan las barreras al autom\u00f3vil, agricultura y ganader\u00eda estadounidenses. Adem\u00e1s, es esencial que se reabra el debate sobre el gasto en defensa, que est\u00e1 muy lejos del objetivo acordado en 2020, y la importaci\u00f3n de gas y petr\u00f3leo.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

El a\u00f1o 2025 se presenta como un a\u00f1o positivo para la econom\u00eda global<\/strong>, con menos incertidumbres y un impulso macroecon\u00f3mico proveniente del sector privado y, por tanto, m\u00e1s sostenible. Los inversores deberemos prestar atenci\u00f3n a la evoluci\u00f3n de la inflaci\u00f3n por su impacto en la pol\u00edtica de tipos de inter\u00e9s, al desarrollo de los conflictos geopol\u00edticos y a la reducci\u00f3n de los desequilibrios fiscales.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

El oro y el d\u00f3lar se mantienen como activos defensivos<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Esperamos que los bancos centrales mantengan su pol\u00edtica acomodaticia y, por ello, la enorme cantidad de bonos soberanos que vencen en 2025 ser\u00e1n monetizados parcialmente. El oro y el d\u00f3lar se mantienen como activos defensivos ante la volatilidad de mercado, y seguimos apostando por la renta variable<\/strong>, teniendo en cuenta las valoraciones y las oportunidades que genera la pr\u00f3xima presentaci\u00f3n de resultados, que ser\u00e1 crucial para conocer la estimaci\u00f3n de beneficios de las empresas para 2025 y 2026.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Consideramos que una visi\u00f3n optimista, aunque prudente, sigue siendo la mejor estrategia.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n\t\t

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Per<\/span> Daniel Lacalle<\/b><\/a><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Economista en cap de Tressis<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Doctor en Economia, professor d\u2019Economia Global i Finances, a m\u00e9s de gestor de fons d\u2019inversi\u00f3.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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\n \n \tLinkedin<\/span>\n \t<\/i><\/a>\n \t\t\t\t\t\t\n \n \tTwitter<\/span>\n \t<\/i><\/a>\n<\/div>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Los \u00faltimos datos de inflaci\u00f3n en la eurozona y Estados Unidos reflejan un IPC y un PCE estancados. Aunque el mercado contin\u00faa tranquilo, lo preocupante es que hace meses que la tasa mensual e interanual se mantiene sin cambios, y que el factor energ\u00e9tico ha dejado de funcionar como efecto desinflacionista.   En un informe […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":104307,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-104306","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-estrategias"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLa inflaci\u00f3n y las pol\u00edticas de Trump<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Debemos prestar atenci\u00f3n a la evoluci\u00f3n del gasto p\u00fablico en 2025 para entender si la inflaci\u00f3n est\u00e1 reduci\u00e9ndose o no.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" 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