{"id":103773,"date":"2024-11-28T13:01:51","date_gmt":"2024-11-28T12:01:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/?p=103773"},"modified":"2024-12-04T13:38:30","modified_gmt":"2024-12-04T12:38:30","slug":"los-aranceles-no-causan-inflacion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/ca\/blog\/los-aranceles-no-causan-inflacion\/","title":{"rendered":"Los aranceles no causan inflaci\u00f3n"},"content":{"rendered":"

El anuncio por parte del presidente Donald Trump de una bater\u00eda de aranceles a varios pa\u00edses ha generado una enorme pol\u00e9mica en el mundo financiero. Por un lado, cuando leemos estas noticias, parece que Estados Unidos es un pa\u00eds proteccionista y que los aranceles son injustificados. Nada m\u00e1s lejos de la realidad. Seg\u00fan The Economist<\/em> y el \u00edndice de libertad econ\u00f3mica, Estados Unidos es uno de los pa\u00edses m\u00e1s libres y con mayores facilidades para el comercio<\/strong>, incluso teniendo en cuenta los aranceles impuestos por las administraciones Obama, Trump y Biden. No olvidemos que todas han mantenido y aumentado los aranceles de la anterior administraci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n

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Los pa\u00edses que m\u00e1s barreras imponen al comercio son India, China, Rusia, Brasil, Sud\u00e1frica, M\u00e9xico y, entre los moderadamente proteccionistas, se encuentran Alemania, Francia e Italia. \u00bfQu\u00e9 barreras al comercio imponen?<\/strong> Restricciones regulatorias, legales, subvenciones, aranceles disfrazados de medidas ambientales y trabas burocr\u00e1ticas. La Uni\u00f3n Europea es un caso paradigm\u00e1tico de amplias barreras al comercio a trav\u00e9s de subvenciones y trabas regulatorias y medioambientales. En el caso de Canad\u00e1 y M\u00e9xico, hay un factor adicional para justificar los aranceles: su inacci\u00f3n ante la oleada de tr\u00e1fico de inmigrantes, drogas y armas con destino a Estados Unidos.<\/p>\n

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\"Informe<\/a><\/div>\n

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A veces parece que Estados Unidos debe ser una casa con puertas y ventanas abiertas de par en par en un vecindario con vallas y tabiques por doquier.<\/p>\n

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Las estimaciones de aranceles propuestos por Trump asumen un impacto para Estados Unidos de unos 300.000 millones de d\u00f3lares en nuevos ingresos. Estados Unidos pierde, seg\u00fan el Departamento de Comercio, m\u00e1s de 800.000 millones de d\u00f3lares anuales en limitaciones a sus productos; 250.000 de ellos son culpa de la UE y casi 550.000, por China.<\/p>\n

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Seg\u00fan JP Morgan, el impacto de la imposici\u00f3n de un arancel del 25% a los productos de Canad\u00e1 y M\u00e9xico y de un 65% a China (aumento sobre los actuales de un 10%) supondr\u00eda un coste de 91.000 millones de d\u00f3lares para Canad\u00e1, 61.000 para M\u00e9xico y 42.000 para China, con un aumento de la inflaci\u00f3n del 0,5%, 0,3% y 0,2% respectivamente.<\/p>\n

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Mientras el c\u00e1lculo de coste econ\u00f3mico es plausible, la narrativa de los analistas sobre los aranceles como causa de la inflaci\u00f3n no se sostiene.<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Los aranceles pueden elevar el precio unitario de aquellos bienes cuya producci\u00f3n es 100% extranjera y con demanda inel\u00e1stica, algo extremadamente raro, pero no los precios agregados ni mucho menos anualmente y de manera consolidada. De hecho, tenemos la experiencia de toda la historia econ\u00f3mica y del periodo 2016-2021, si prefieren usar el primer mandato de Trump, que demuestra que los aranceles no causan la inflaci\u00f3n<\/strong>. Los aranceles pueden tener otros efectos negativos, especialmente el impacto en acuerdos comerciales y tensiones pol\u00edticas, pero no causan ni elevan la inflaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n

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La inflaci\u00f3n es el aumento anual de los precios agregados, denominados en una moneda emitida por el Estado<\/strong>. Lo \u00fanico que causa la inflaci\u00f3n es la erosi\u00f3n del poder adquisitivo de la moneda por emitir una cantidad mucho mayor de lo que demanda el sector privado. La inflaci\u00f3n es siempre y en todo lugar un efecto monetario.<\/strong><\/a> Es m\u00e1s, la inflaci\u00f3n no aumenta, se consolida y sigue aumentando, aunque sea a menor ritmo por una causa como los aranceles. Algunos productores interiorizar\u00e1n dichos aranceles, como ha ocurrido siempre con China, otros simplemente vender\u00e1n en otros pa\u00edses y, finalmente, otros encontrar\u00e1n maneras de producir en Estados Unidos si quieren evitar las cargas comerciales. Por ello es imposible que se aumente la inflaci\u00f3n a menos que aumente a la vez la cantidad de dinero en el sistema.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Lo que sabemos de la administraci\u00f3n Trump 2016-2021 es que la econom\u00eda global creci\u00f3, la inflaci\u00f3n era baja y los aranceles se utilizar\u00e1n para negociar mejores condiciones<\/strong> con los socios comerciales de Estados Unidos. Y, si no se consiguen, muchos de esos aranceles tendr\u00e1n que interiorizarse, si pa\u00edses como China quieren seguir manteniendo su super\u00e1vit comercial.<\/p>\n

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Per<\/span> Daniel Lacalle<\/b><\/a><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Economista en cap de Tressis<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Doctor en Economia, professor d\u2019Economia Global i Finances, a m\u00e9s de gestor de fons d\u2019inversi\u00f3.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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\n \n \tLinkedin<\/span>\n \t<\/i><\/a>\n \t\t\t\t\t\t\n \n \tTwitter<\/span>\n \t<\/i><\/a>\n<\/div>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

El anuncio por parte del presidente Donald Trump de una bater\u00eda de aranceles a varios pa\u00edses ha generado una enorme pol\u00e9mica en el mundo financiero. Por un lado, cuando leemos estas noticias, parece que Estados Unidos es un pa\u00eds proteccionista y que los aranceles son injustificados. Nada m\u00e1s lejos de la realidad. Seg\u00fan The Economist […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":103775,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-103773","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-estrategias"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLos aranceles no causan inflaci\u00f3n<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"El anuncio por parte de Trump, de una bater\u00eda de aranceles a varios pa\u00edses ha generado una enorme pol\u00e9mica en el mundo financiero.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/ca\/blog\/los-aranceles-no-causan-inflacion\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ca_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta 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