{"id":102429,"date":"2024-10-24T09:55:57","date_gmt":"2024-10-24T07:55:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/?p=102429"},"modified":"2024-10-24T13:53:30","modified_gmt":"2024-10-24T11:53:30","slug":"politica-monetaria-flexible-continuada","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tressis.com\/ca\/blog\/politica-monetaria-flexible-continuada\/","title":{"rendered":"El mercado descuenta una pol\u00edtica monetaria flexible continuada"},"content":{"rendered":"

Llevamos muchos meses comentando la evidencia de una pol\u00edtica monetaria extremadamente laxa comparada con una narrativa medi\u00e1tica que nos intenta convencer de que los bancos centrales aplican pol\u00edticas restrictivas.<\/p>\n

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Los \u00faltimos datos de masa monetaria nos recuerdan lo err\u00f3neo que es pensar en bancos centrales restrictivos. En agosto, la masa monetaria de Estados Unidos creci\u00f3 al ritmo m\u00e1s elevado en veintitr\u00e9s meses. A nivel global, la cantidad de dinero en el sistema medida por metro cuadrado ha crecido al ritmo m\u00e1s r\u00e1pido de los \u00faltimos tres a\u00f1os en los meses de junio a septiembre.<\/p>\n

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Es normal, por lo tanto, que el mercado d\u00e9 la impresi\u00f3n de que se ignoran los riesgos geopol\u00edticos. No es que se ignoren, es que su impacto en el coste de capital de las empresas y en el precio de algunas materias primas es mucho menos significativo de lo que la comunidad inversora suele creer. Es normal que el petr\u00f3leo haya perdido casi toda la subida creada con el ataque de Ir\u00e1n a Israel. Se trata de entender que la demanda est\u00e1 perfectamente cubierta y que la importancia de la OPEP es cada vez menos relevante<\/strong> en la formaci\u00f3n de precios de las materias primas energ\u00e9ticas.<\/p>\n

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Sin embargo, el mercado financiero reconoce la realidad monetaria antes descrita. El oro sigue subiendo<\/a> ante la evidencia de que los bancos centrales y los gobiernos del mundo seguir\u00e1n disfrazando los desequilibrios fiscales con enormes inyecciones de liquidez, es decir, imprimiendo dinero y, con ello, reduciendo el poder adquisitivo de la moneda.<\/p>\n

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Es por ello por lo que encontramos en el mercado que otras materias primas, no el petr\u00f3leo, capturan mejor el escenario monetario global. El aluminio, cobre o n\u00edquel son algunos de esos materiales que nos recuerdan que lo m\u00e1s importante en el mercado es la cantidad y precio del dinero.<\/p>\n

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El inversor no solo debe prestar atenci\u00f3n a la cantidad de dinero ya emitida, sino a la que est\u00e1 comprometida y no emitida. Los pasivos no financiados y comprometidos de las grandes econom\u00edas del mundo se elevan a un rango que se mueve entre el 150% y el 500% del PIB. Eso significa que habr\u00e1 pol\u00edticas monetarias acomodaticias durante un largo periodo y que la decisi\u00f3n de mayor riesgo es la de no invertir<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

El escenario al que nos enfrentamos es positivo para los activos de riesgo<\/a> a largo plazo, pero no podemos olvidar la volatilidad y, por ello, debemos invertir con cautela y bien asesorados<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

El \u00faltimo informe de estabilidad financiera global (octubre 2024) del fondo monetario explica que “si bien la flexibilizaci\u00f3n monetaria en curso ha ayudado a mantener las condiciones financieras acomodaticias y a mantener a raya los riesgos de estabilidad financiera a corto plazo, esto puede a su vez facilitar la acumulaci\u00f3n de vulnerabilidades financieras”. Resalta, adem\u00e1s, que “la creciente desconexi\u00f3n entre la volatilidad moderada de los mercados financieros, en relaci\u00f3n con la elevada incertidumbre econ\u00f3mica y geopol\u00edtica, aumenta las posibilidades de una brusca y desordenada revalorizaci\u00f3n”. Un aumento adicional de la volatilidad podr\u00eda perjudicar la estabilidad financiera”.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

El riesgo se acumula lentamente, pero suele manifestarse r\u00e1pidamente. Como inversores, eso significa que debemos mantener una posici\u00f3n prudente que nos ayude a entender que cualquier correcci\u00f3n es una buena oportunidad para buscar inversiones de calidad a largo plazo. En lugar de preocuparnos por identificar cu\u00e1ndo ocurrir\u00e1 una correcci\u00f3n, lo que debemos hacer es entender que no vamos a vivir un periodo mejor para invertir, porque la decisi\u00f3n concertada de los bancos centrales de evitar una crisis con enormes inyecciones de liquidez tambi\u00e9n implica menor poder adquisitivo de las monedas a futuro. No invertir es entregarse a una inflaci\u00f3n persistente.<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Tener una cartera equilibrada, donde se incluyan activos que nos protegen en caso de correcci\u00f3n, como son el d\u00f3lar y el oro, nos ayuda a encarar los periodos de correcci\u00f3n como lo que son: oportunidades.<\/a> Al final, el mercado descuenta muchos factores fundamentales, pero el m\u00e1s fundamental de todos es el monetario. Aprovech\u00e9moslo, invirtiendo con cautela para protegernos contra la p\u00e9rdida del poder adquisitivo de las monedas, es decir, la inflaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n

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Per<\/span> Daniel Lacalle<\/b><\/a><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Economista en cap de Tressis<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Doctor en Economia, professor d\u2019Economia Global i Finances, a m\u00e9s de gestor de fons d\u2019inversi\u00f3.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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\n \n \tLinkedin<\/span>\n \t<\/i><\/a>\n \t\t\t\t\t\t\n \n \tTwitter<\/span>\n \t<\/i><\/a>\n<\/div>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Llevamos muchos meses comentando la evidencia de una pol\u00edtica monetaria extremadamente laxa comparada con una narrativa medi\u00e1tica que nos intenta convencer de que los bancos centrales aplican pol\u00edticas restrictivas.   Los \u00faltimos datos de masa monetaria nos recuerdan lo err\u00f3neo que es pensar en bancos centrales restrictivos. En agosto, la masa monetaria de Estados Unidos […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":102434,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[508,3001,3453,4002,4610,4646,4845,4967,4997,9785,5853],"class_list":["post-102429","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-estrategias","tag-bancos-centrales","tag-geopolitica","tag-inflacion","tag-materias-primas","tag-opep","tag-oro","tag-petroleo","tag-poder-adquisitivo","tag-politica-monetaria","tag-politicas-restrictivas","tag-revalorizacion"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nEl mercado descuenta una pol\u00edtica monetaria flexible continuada<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Pol\u00edtica monetaria laxa comparada con la narrativa medi\u00e1tica de que los bancos centrales aplican pol\u00edticas restrictivas.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" 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